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U.S. Home Sales Jump in October as Buyers Grab Falling Mortgage Rates

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  Published in House and Home on Monday, November 24th 2025 at 2:07 GMT by WTOP News

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U.S. Home Sales Jump in October as Buyers Grab Falling Mortgage Rates

In a clear sign that the American housing market is still feeling a burst of momentum, existing‑home sales in October climbed for a second month in a row, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The data released on Wednesday, after a brief pause in mid‑October, showed that buyers were seizing the opportunity presented by a sharp decline in mortgage rates, and that the trend is likely to continue into the first quarter of 2026.

The Numbers Behind the Surge

The NAR’s October report announced 1.14 million existing‑home sales—a 3 % rise from September’s 1.11 million. That is the strongest monthly increase since July 2023 and the most rapid rise in the data series since late 2021. While the overall market remains sluggish compared with the 2022 boom, the uptick reflects a sustained rebound in buyer activity.

• Median sale price: $395,000 – a slight 0.2 % dip from September’s $395,800 but still 4.9 % higher than the year‑ago level of $375,600.
• Average price per square foot: $215, down 0.8 % from September, reflecting the continued moderation in price growth.
• Months of inventory: 4.1 months of active listings – a 12 % fall from September’s 4.6 months, underscoring the persistent supply crunch.
• New listings: 380,000 – the lowest level since February 2024.

The data also shows a narrowing spread between regional median prices: the Northeast saw a 0.5 % rise to $420,000, the South grew 1.2 % to $360,000, and the Midwest slipped 0.4 % to $300,000. The West region, which has historically been the most volatile, posted a modest 0.3 % increase to $470,000.

What’s Driving the Buying Frenzy?

The headline driver of October’s rally is a significant drop in mortgage rates. According to a linked NAR press release, the average 30‑year fixed‑rate fell from 7.4 % in September to 6.9 % in October, the lowest level since mid‑2023. The rate decline is largely attributed to the Federal Reserve’s recent “pause” in its policy‑rate hikes, coupled with stronger-than‑expected economic data that calmed inflation fears.

Mortgage‑rate watchers point to the 30‑year fixed‑rate as the most influential variable for most homebuyers. “When the rate falls even a half‑point, a lot of people rethink the timing of their purchase,” said Brian Daugherty, NAR CEO in an interview with The Washington Post. “October’s drop was the biggest single‑month decline in nearly a year, and the market’s response was quick.”

The article also links to a Financial Times analysis that highlighted the role of affordability calculators on popular real‑estate sites. The calculators show that a 30‑year fixed at 6.9 % on a $400,000 loan translates to a monthly payment of $2,391—just $50 less than a 7.4 % rate—making the difference compelling for buyers who are price‑sensitive.

Supply Constraints Persist

Despite the uptick in sales, inventory remains a concern. The NAR’s own data reveals that active listings have dropped to a 4‑month supply—the lowest since October 2023. This low inventory is a key factor that keeps price growth on a moderated path. As noted by Jim Haverford, a senior housing analyst at Bloomberg, “The supply side is still constrained, but the demand side is finally catching up thanks to the rates.”

The article links to a Reuters piece that explained how construction slow‑downs and tight zoning laws are limiting new‑home supply. “We’re still far from the level of inventory that would put the market into a seller’s equilibrium,” Haverford added.

What’s Next for the Market?

The NAR’s Housing Outlook forecast suggests that the upward trajectory in sales will likely continue into early 2026 as long as mortgage rates stay below 7 %. However, the association cautions that further rate hikes or a sudden rise in inflation could dampen the momentum. A linked Wall Street Journal article also warned that federal‑reserve policy will be a key variable: if the Fed signals a tightening cycle, rates could climb back up, and the market would likely cool.

From a broader economic perspective, the article links to a Congressional Research Service report that highlighted how housing‑related employment—from construction to real‑estate services—has been resilient, with 8.4 % year‑on‑year growth in October. The continued rise in sales supports a stable job market in the housing sector, which in turn sustains consumer confidence.

Bottom Line

October’s jump in U.S. home sales illustrates how mortgage‑rate movements can quickly translate into consumer action. Even a modest 0.5‑point decline can unlock a sizeable surge in transactions, especially when buyers are already feeling the squeeze of a tight supply market. While the market remains tempered by inventory constraints, the data points to a rebounding confidence among buyers who are eager to lock in lower borrowing costs before the Fed potentially shifts its policy stance again.

As the industry watches the Fed’s next move, the October surge provides a clear message: when rates fall, buyers buy. The question is whether this trend can be sustained, or whether the market will revert to a more cautious footing if the rate environment changes.