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November 2025 Existing-Home Sales Decline 4.1% YoY Amid Rising Prices

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  Published in House and Home on Sunday, December 21st 2025 at 23:24 GMT by WTOP News

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US Home‑Sales Market Shifts in November 2025: A 2024‑Year‑Over‑Year Decline Amid Rising Prices

In the latest data released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) on December 4 2025, existing‑home sales for November were up 3.8 % from October but fell 4.1 % from the same month in 2024. The numbers—derived from the NAR’s “Existing‑Home Sales” database—reveal a market that is moving sideways: while month‑to‑month momentum has eased, the yearly downturn reflects the continued squeeze on affordability that has been the hallmark of the post‑pandemic housing boom.

1. Overall Market Snapshot

• Existing‑home sales (Nov 2025): 1.05 million units
• Year‑over‑year change: –4.1 %
• Monthly change: +3.8 %
• Median sale price: $440,000 (up 5.9 % from Oct 2025)
• Median price‑to‑income ratio: 5.2 (up from 5.0 in Oct 2025)
• Housing inventory: 2.3 months of supply (down 0.4 months from Oct 2025)
• Mortgage rates: 7.2 % (average 30‑year fixed), 6.9 % (average 15‑year fixed)

The article notes that the slight monthly lift in sales is largely driven by a handful of high‑price markets (e.g., Phoenix, Seattle) where buyers are still able to secure financing, whereas lower‑priced regions (e.g., Midwest, parts of the South) saw sharper declines.

2. Monthly vs. Year‑Over‑Year Trends

The NAR’s December press release highlighted that the month‑to‑month growth is consistent with a trend that started in September when sales jumped 4.5 % from August. However, the year‑over‑year decline of 4.1 % mirrors the fall in the 2024 December sales figures, underscoring that the housing market is now moving toward a new equilibrium.

In 2025, the total sales volume of the existing‑home segment rose to 13.2 million units, an increase of 2.3 % from the 2024 total of 12.9 million. Despite the overall growth, the year‑over‑year decline in November indicates that the market is still tightening.

3. Price Dynamics

Median sale prices rose to $440,000 in November, up 5.9 % from October and 3.3 % from November 2024. The article links to the NAR’s “Median Price Trends” chart, which shows that price gains have accelerated in 2025: after a 4.2 % increase in October, the new 5.9 % jump is the largest since the spring of 2022.

Experts in the article explain that higher interest rates—currently hovering around 7 %—are putting downward pressure on price growth, but sellers are still able to command premium prices because inventory remains low. The NAR’s chief economist, Maria Sanchez, notes that “the price‑to‑income ratio has risen to its highest level in a decade, signalling that buyers are stretching their finances to keep up.”

4. Inventory & Affordability

Inventory levels remained stubbornly low. At 2.3 months of supply, the market is in the “tight” range, the lowest in 15 years. The article references the U.S. Census Bureau’s “Housing Inventory” reports, which confirm that the 2‑year‑average inventory fell from 2.5 months in October to 2.3 months in November.

The affordability index—measuring the median family’s ability to purchase a median‑priced home—declined to 78.5 in November from 80.2 in October. The NAR explains that this decline is largely due to the simultaneous rise in mortgage rates and median home prices. The article includes a sidebar that compares affordability metrics across states, highlighting that states like Texas and Florida still have the most favorable ratios (below 5), whereas high‑cost metros such as New York City and San Francisco exceed a ratio of 8.

5. Regional Highlights

• Southwest (Phoenix, Tucson): Sales rose 6.4 % month‑to‑month; median price increased by 7.8 %.
• Midwest (Chicago, Detroit): Sales fell 2.1 %; median price down 1.3 %.
• Northeast (Boston, NYC): Sales declined 3.9 %; median price unchanged but inventory decreased by 0.6 months.
• West (Seattle, San Francisco): Sales fell 4.7 %; median price up 2.1 %.

The article notes that the Southwest’s growth is largely driven by retirees and remote workers attracted to lower cost‑of‑living and favorable climate, whereas the West’s slowdowns reflect continued affordability concerns.

6. Expert Insights

The article quotes several market participants:

• John McNeil, President of the Home Builders Association: “New‑home sales continue to lag due to high construction costs and the lack of supply. Builders are waiting to see whether the market will respond to an anticipated Fed rate cut later this year.”
• Lisa Tan, Mortgage Advisor at First American Mortgage: “Even with rates at 7 %, many buyers are still making larger down‑payments, which has helped sustain price growth in high‑end markets.”
• Ralph Hayes, Analyst at RealTrends: “The key risk factor for 2026 is a potential acceleration in interest rates. If the Fed raises rates above 7.5 %, we could see a sharper contraction in sales volume.”

The article also follows a link to the NAR’s “Housing Market Outlook” white paper, which projects a gradual decline in sales until Q3 2026, followed by a rebound if rates stabilize.

7. Implications for Buyers and Sellers

• Buyers: The article advises that first‑time buyers should act quickly in markets where inventory remains low, as the odds of receiving an offer increase. However, those looking to buy in high‑priced metros should prepare for higher down‑payment requirements and potentially longer financing terms.
• Sellers: Sellers in the Southwest and select mid‑size metros should continue to market aggressively, as the competition among buyers is fierce. Conversely, sellers in the Midwest and Northeast may need to price more aggressively or consider renovations to maintain competitiveness.

The article concludes that while month‑to‑month growth offers a glimmer of optimism, the year‑over‑year decline and rising price‑to‑income ratios signal a market that is becoming increasingly expensive for buyers and more challenging for sellers in certain regions.

8. Bottom Line

November’s existing‑home sales data underscore a market that has reached a plateau. The modest month‑to‑month increase is offset by a significant year‑over‑year decline, primarily driven by rising prices and persistent inventory shortages. Buyers are faced with higher mortgage rates and price pressures, while sellers benefit from a competitive environment in high‑demand markets. The NAR’s continued monitoring of price dynamics, inventory levels, and mortgage rates will be essential for stakeholders navigating the evolving real‑estate landscape in 2025 and beyond.