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Oahu Home Sales Reach Record High in 2025, Market Shifts Loom

  //house-home.news-articles.net/content/2026/01/0 .. each-record-high-in-2025-market-shifts-loom.html
  Published in House and Home on Wednesday, January 7th 2026 at 6:37 GMT by Honolulu Star-Advertiser
      Locale: Hawaii, UNITED STATES

Oahu Home Sales Hit Record High in 2025, But Market Shifts Signal Potential Changes – A 2026 Summary

Oahu’s residential real estate market closed 2025 with a record-breaking median sales price, despite a year characterized by subtle but noteworthy shifts in volume and inventory, according to data analyzed by Hawaii News Now and the Honolulu Star-Advertiser. While 2025 saw continued appreciation, several factors suggest the rapid growth experienced in previous years may be moderating, and a more balanced market could be emerging.

The median sales price for single-family homes on Oahu reached a record $1,150,000 in 2025, a 4.5% increase from the $1,100,000 recorded in 2024. Condo prices also rose, hitting a median of $530,000, a 3.9% jump year-over-year. This marks the seventh consecutive year of price increases for single-family homes and highlights sustained demand for Oahu property. However, the rate of increase is slowing. While 2024 saw a larger jump (around 7%), the deceleration in 2025 suggests a cooling trend.

This continued price appreciation isn't necessarily due to increased sales volume. In fact, 2025 saw a slight decrease in the number of homes sold. A total of 5,354 single-family homes were sold, down 2.2% from the 5,474 sold in 2024. Condo sales fared similarly, experiencing a 1.8% decrease to 4,288 units sold. This decrease in transactions, despite record prices, is a key indicator of a changing market dynamic.

Several factors contributed to these trends. A primary driver remains limited inventory. Despite a small increase in the number of homes available for sale in late 2025, Oahu continues to face a significant housing shortage. This scarcity continues to push prices upward, even with a slight dip in buyer activity.

However, a deeper look reveals more complex influences. Rising mortgage rates throughout 2025 played a crucial role in tempering demand. As the Federal Reserve continued its efforts to combat inflation, 30-year fixed mortgage rates climbed, increasing the cost of homeownership and effectively pricing some potential buyers out of the market. This impact is particularly noticeable at the higher end of the market, where financing costs represent a larger portion of the overall investment.

Another factor is the shift in buyer demographics and preferences. The Star-Advertiser article notes an increase in cash purchases, particularly among mainland and international buyers. This suggests a segment of the market is less sensitive to interest rate fluctuations and continues to drive up competition for desirable properties. Furthermore, a continuing trend toward remote work is influencing where people choose to live, with Oahu remaining an attractive location for those seeking a warm climate and island lifestyle, despite the high cost of living.

The luxury market, specifically homes priced above $3 million, also performed exceptionally well in 2025, experiencing a significant increase in sales volume compared to the previous year. This suggests continued strong demand from high-net-worth individuals, both domestic and foreign, seeking to invest in Oahu real estate.

Looking ahead to 2026, experts predict a continued, though likely slower, pace of price appreciation. The inventory of available homes remains a critical factor. If inventory levels remain low, prices are expected to continue to climb, albeit at a reduced rate. However, further increases in mortgage rates or a significant economic downturn could put downward pressure on prices.

The Honolulu Board of Realtors, as quoted in the article, anticipates that the market will likely stabilize, becoming more balanced as the year progresses. They emphasize the importance of individual property location, condition, and features in determining value. This signals a move away from the broad, sweeping price increases seen in recent years and toward a more nuanced and discerning market.

Ultimately, 2025 was a year of record highs tempered by subtle shifts. While Oahu’s housing market remains exceptionally strong, the slowing rate of price appreciation, declining sales volume, and rising interest rates suggest a potential inflection point. The coming year will be crucial in determining whether Oahu’s housing market will continue its upward trajectory or enter a period of stabilization, or even correction. Potential buyers and sellers should pay close attention to inventory levels, mortgage rate trends, and overall economic conditions to make informed decisions.