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Americans staying put: US home turnover rate at lowest level in decades as housing slump drags on

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  Published in House and Home on Friday, October 31st 2025 at 9:37 GMT by KOB 4
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Americans are holding onto their homes like never before, and the result is a historic drop in the U.S. homeownership turnover rate. A new article from the Associated Press, published through KOB, reports that the rate—defined as the percentage of homeowners who move or sell their houses each year—fell to its lowest point in decades, reaching 1.3% in the most recent quarter. The figure comes from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Annual Housing Survey, which has tracked the metric for over a century.

The article explains that the decline is part of a broader slowdown in the housing market that began in 2020 when the pandemic pushed many Americans to stay put. As mortgage rates surged past 7% in 2023, new home sales dipped, while existing home sales have remained stubbornly low. The Census Bureau’s data show that the average mortgage rate in the fourth quarter of 2023 was 6.8%, up from 3.5% in early 2020, a jump that has dampened the demand for new homes. Even as rates have begun to flatten slightly, the market has yet to regain the momentum seen during the pre‑pandemic boom.

A key part of the story is the role of supply constraints. The article notes that the number of homes built annually has fallen to roughly 1.2 million units in 2023, compared to an average of 1.7 million in the 1990s. Builder confidence has been low, citing rising construction costs, labor shortages, and regulatory hurdles. According to the National Association of Home Builders, the cost of building a new home rose by 12% over the past year, while skilled labor shortages have driven up wages by nearly 20% in the construction sector.

The AP piece quotes Dr. Sarah Martinez, an economist at the University of California, Berkeley, who says, “The low turnover rate is a sign that households are feeling more financially stable, but it also reflects a broader malaise in the housing market. The high rates of mortgage debt relative to income have made people reluctant to move, and the supply side constraints have made it harder for new buyers to find inventory.” Martinez adds that the phenomenon could have ripple effects on the broader economy. Low turnover can keep housing prices elevated in certain markets, reduce labor mobility, and potentially slow down regional economic growth.

The article also follows a link to the Census Bureau’s own data portal, where the full quarterly report is available for download. The report shows a 5.6% drop in the turnover rate from Q1 2022 to Q1 2023, and a 2.8% decline from the same quarter in 2021. While the figure is historically low, it remains above the 0.8% rate recorded in 2004, the last time the market was as tight as it is today. For context, the article references a 2008 financial crisis snapshot, where the turnover rate dipped to 0.9% in the wake of a mortgage collapse. However, the current situation differs in that the decline is driven by a combination of high interest rates and supply bottlenecks, rather than a credit crunch.

In addition to the Census data, the AP piece cites a recent report from the Economic Policy Institute (EPI), which notes that average mortgage debt per household has risen to $213,000, a 30% increase from 2015 levels. The EPI report, linked in the article, attributes the surge to the sustained demand for homes during the pandemic, coupled with a slower rise in income levels. This debt burden, combined with the current high interest environment, has left many homeowners with little incentive to sell or relocate.

The article’s conclusion emphasizes the uncertainty that looms over the housing market. It suggests that if mortgage rates continue to stay high, the turnover rate could remain suppressed, which would keep inventory low and drive up prices in certain regions. Conversely, if rates begin to decline, we might see a gradual rebound in both new and existing home sales, potentially lifting the turnover rate and easing supply constraints.

Overall, the Associated Press report paints a detailed picture of a market in limbo: homeowners are reluctant to move, builders are struggling to keep up with demand, and economists warn that the combination could have long‑lasting implications for the U.S. economy. The article provides readers with the underlying data, expert commentary, and links to primary sources, offering a comprehensive view of the forces shaping the American housing landscape.