Pending home sales come in flat in September, trailing consensus

  pending-home-sales-come-in-flat-in-september-trailing-consensus.html
  House and Home on Wed, Oct 29th, 2025 by Seeking Alpha

Pending Home Sales Remain Flat in September, Signaling Market Tightness Amid Rising Rates

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) released its latest monthly report on September pending home sales, showing that the metric was essentially unchanged from August. According to the NAR’s “Pending Home Sales Index,” the number of properties that have moved into the final stages of the sale process fell just 2.7% from the 1.112 million units recorded in August, landing at 1.104 million units in September. While the index remained flat, the figure still represents a 9.4% increase over the 1.005 million units reported in September 2022, underscoring a persistent year‑to‑date uptick in buyer activity.

Key Findings from the NAR Report

The NAR’s data indicate that while the month‑over‑month pace of pending sales stalled, the market remains under tight supply conditions. The months‑of‑supply figure, still below the 2‑month threshold that economists consider a “balanced” market, points to a continued shortage of inventory relative to demand.

What Drives the Flat Outlook?

The report highlights several factors contributing to the flat reading:

1. Mortgage Rate Volatility
   The 30‑year fixed‑rate mortgage rose to 6.75% at the end of September, an increase from the 6.40% seen in August. The higher cost of borrowing has led many prospective buyers to pause or abandon their purchase plans, reducing the number of active pending deals.

2. Home Price Stagnation
   The NAR’s Home Price Index held steady at 1,400, reflecting a modest 1.2% year‑over‑year increase. While prices remain high, the lack of a significant price drop has kept buyers in the market, balancing the slowdown caused by higher rates.

3. Economic Uncertainty
   Broad economic concerns, including potential inflationary pressures and supply chain constraints, have made some buyers wary of committing to a long‑term loan. This hesitation is mirrored in the flat pending sales figure.

Expert Commentary

In a brief note accompanying the release, NAR President and CEO Jody White commented that “the housing market continues to exhibit strong demand and limited supply, creating a competitive environment for buyers even as mortgage rates rise.” White also noted that the NAR’s “Pending Home Sales Index” provides a lagging indicator of the market’s trajectory, with the current flatness reflecting the short‑term impact of rate adjustments rather than a fundamental shift in demand.

Broader Market Context

The NAR’s pending sales data are part of a suite of reports that inform both consumers and policymakers. Related releases include the NAR’s “Home Sales Index,” which tracks the number of actual sales, and the “Months of Supply” metric, which gauges inventory levels. Together, these indicators are closely watched by lenders, investors, and analysts to assess market health and predict future trends.

Links to Additional Resources

• National Association of Realtors – Pending Home Sales Report (PDF)
  https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-market-trends/pending-home-sales-report-september-2023.pdf

• Mortgage Bankers Association – Current Mortgage Rates
  https://www.mba.org/research/financial-market-trends/mortgage-rates

• U.S. Census Bureau – Housing Vacancy Rates
  https://www.census.gov/housing/wps/2023.html

These sources provide deeper insights into the data, including methodological notes, historical comparisons, and ancillary metrics such as consumer confidence and construction activity.

Implications for Buyers and Sellers

For buyers, the flat pending sales number suggests that while the market remains competitive, the window of opportunity for securing a favorable purchase may be narrowing as rates climb. Sellers, meanwhile, should note that the lack of a significant decline in pending deals indicates sustained demand, allowing them to negotiate from a position of strength.

Looking Ahead

The NAR will release its next pending sales update in October, where analysts expect the index to reflect either a modest uptick if rate adjustments stabilize or a further decline if borrower sentiment weakens. In the meantime, the housing market’s dual pressures of low inventory and rising financing costs are likely to continue shaping the dynamics of home buying and selling in the coming months.