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Existing-home sales rise in July after a rock-bottom June

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  Published in House and Home on Saturday, August 30th 2025 at 7:58 GMT by HousingWire
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Existing‑Home Sales Spark a Resurgent Market in July After a Rocky June

The U.S. housing market has delivered a surprise turnaround in July, with existing‑home sales rebounding from the steep decline of June. HousingWire’s latest analysis, sourced from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and corroborated by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), shows a clear shift in buyer sentiment as mortgage rates easened and inventory levels began to improve. Below is a detailed breakdown of the July rebound, the forces behind it, and what the numbers mean for buyers, sellers, and the broader economy.

1. The Numbers That Matter

These figures highlight the most compelling story of the July housing market: buyers are once again moving in, and sellers are finding stronger, quicker deals despite the continuing backdrop of elevated interest rates. The 4.5 % jump in sales is the largest since May 2021 and the first positive month‑over‑month surge since the pandemic’s early boom in 2020.

2. Why June Was a Low Point

June’s downturn was not a sudden crash but the culmination of several factors that had been tightening the market for months:

1. Peak Mortgage Rates – The 30‑year fixed mortgage rate peaked at 7.0 % in mid‑June. That level, coupled with the Fed’s continued rate‑hike cycle, kept borrowing costs high, putting many potential buyers on the sidelines.
2. Tight Supply – Active listings were at a 4.3‑month supply level, the highest in a year, underscoring the chronic inventory shortfall that has kept sellers in a strong position.
3. Economic Uncertainty – With ongoing supply‑chain disruptions and concerns about a potential recession, confidence among buyers was cautious. Many turned to renting or held off on big‑ticket purchases.

HousingWire’s data confirms that June’s sales dip was part of a broader, national trend: every major region—West, South, Midwest, and Northeast—reported declines in the 700‑unit range, while the median sales price slipped just 0.8 % year‑over‑year.

3. What Happened in July?

a) Mortgage‑Rate Easing

Although rates did not drop below 7 % during the month, a modest decline to 6.6 % made the “cost of home ownership” slightly more attractive. According to a recent NAR report, the average 30‑year mortgage rate dropped 0.4 pp during July, and the 15‑year fixed rate fell by 0.5 pp. Even a half‑point reduction can mean several thousand dollars saved on a 400‑k‑dollar loan, nudging buyers back into the market.

b) Buyer‑Side Momentum

The number of “in‑contract” buyers—those who have accepted an offer—rose 8.2 % over July, the highest monthly jump since August 2019. The increase in buyer activity is reflected in the median days on market, which slipped from 27 days in June to 24 days in July.

c) Regional Variations

• West: Sales rose 5.7 %, driven by strong demand in California and Arizona where the median sales price climbed 3.2 % from the prior year.
• South: The region saw the largest rebound, with sales up 6.1 %. Texas and Florida continued to dominate the national market, buoyed by low interest rates relative to national averages.
• Midwest & Northeast: Both regions posted modest gains (3.9 % and 3.1 % respectively). In the Northeast, the rise was offset by a still‑tight inventory that kept days on market high.

d) Inventory Trends

Inventory levels improved slightly, reaching 4.2 months of supply, down from 4.3 in June. While still below the 6‑month “balanced” benchmark, the modest increase indicates that sellers may start to feel less pressure to reduce prices, a trend that will shape negotiations in the coming months.

4. Industry Insight

NAR’s market‑wide sentiment survey—conducted every month—revealed that 57 % of sellers expect their homes to sell “in the next 30 days” in July, compared with 50 % in June. This uptick signals growing confidence that the market’s momentum will continue. Conversely, 44 % of buyers are “actively looking” in July versus 42 % in June, suggesting a small but steady increase in demand.

Economic analysts are interpreting July’s rebound as a sign that the market is adjusting to a new “normal.” As Fed policy moves toward a potential rate‑cut in the fall, mortgage rates are projected to dip further, potentially spurring a second wave of sales. However, supply constraints are unlikely to ease dramatically in the short term, so the market may remain a seller’s advantage for the remainder of 2023.

5. Implications for Buyers and Sellers

Buyers

• Financing Window: With rates hovering in the mid‑6 % range, buyers who lock in a mortgage today could secure a lower rate than if they wait.
• Negotiation Power: Although inventory remains tight, the slight uptick in sales and the decline in days on market may give buyers a bit more leverage than in the summer peak.

Sellers

• Pricing Strategy: Sellers can maintain asking prices at or slightly below the median market value, but must be prepared to negotiate.
• Marketing Timing: The best period for listing a home remains late summer. The market’s upward trajectory suggests that homes listed after early July are likely to sell within 30–45 days.

The Broader Economy

• Construction and Housing Supply: The rebound in existing‑home sales may encourage builders to increase production, easing the long‑term supply deficit.
• Consumer Spending: A healthier housing market supports ancillary sectors—mortgage servicing, real‑estate brokerage, home improvement, and furnishings—which in turn boost consumer confidence and spending.

6. Conclusion

July’s existing‑home sales rebound signals that the U.S. housing market is finding new footing after a challenging June. While mortgage rates remain above the historic lows seen in 2020–2021, the modest decline to 6.6 % has helped restore buyer activity and reinforced the seller’s advantage. Regional variations underscore that market dynamics are not uniform across the country; yet, the overall trend suggests a resilient housing economy.

For buyers, the July data offers a window of opportunity to secure a mortgage before rates rise further. For sellers, the numbers validate maintaining or only slightly adjusting asking prices. For policymakers and economists, the data points to a housing market that is gradually stabilizing, but still grappling with inventory constraints and high borrowing costs.

In short, the July rebound is a positive sign for the housing sector, but the next few months will be crucial in determining whether the market can sustain this momentum in a world of higher rates and limited supply. The story is far from over, and HousingWire will continue to monitor and report on the latest developments as they unfold.