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Average mortgage rate drops to lowest level since last October

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  Published in House and Home on Thursday, September 4th 2025 at 13:14 GMT by Oregonian
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Mortgage Rates Fall to Lowest Level Since Last October, Giving Oregon Homebuyers a Breather

September 4, 2025 — Portland, OR – The latest data from Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) shows that the average 30‑year fixed‑rate mortgage dipped to 6.12 %, the lowest it has been since the fall of last October. The decline comes as the Federal Reserve eases policy, inflation slows, and investors re‑ignite demand for mortgage‑backed securities. For Oregon’s buyers, the drop may finally translate into more affordable monthly payments and a boost in home‑buying activity after months of sluggishness.

A Sharp Move on the 30‑Year Fixed

The 30‑year fixed‑rate average fell 0.20 percentage points from August’s 6.32 % to 6.12 %, and it has slipped an additional 0.31 percentage points from its 6.43 % peak in July. Freddie Mac’s PMMS data also show a modest decline in the 15‑year fixed‑rate, which fell to 5.95 % from 6.30 % in August, while the 30‑year adjustable‑rate mortgage (ARM) average slid to 6.04 % from 6.34 % a month earlier.

“The market is finally feeling the easing in the Fed’s stance,” says Thomas Reyes, a senior analyst at Oregon Mortgage Finance. “The decline in Treasury yields is spilling over into the mortgage market, which is why we’re seeing a clean drop across the board.”

Why the Rates Are Falling

The Federal Reserve’s recent policy moves are at the heart of the shift. In July and August, the Fed cut the federal funds target range by 25‑basis‑points in July and 50‑basis‑points in August, citing easing inflation and a more resilient labor market. Treasury yields – the benchmark that underpins mortgage rates – followed suit, with the 10‑year Treasury yield falling to 3.20 % from 3.55 % at the beginning of September.

Beyond policy, “investor appetite for mortgage‑backed securities has improved,” notes Emily Chen, a market strategist at CoreLogic. “After a period of high rates and credit tightening, buyers in the secondary market have returned, providing a liquidity boost for lenders.”

The drop is also partially due to the Fed’s forward‑guidance. After a 12‑month period of high rates, the Fed signaled that the pace of rate cuts would slow, but that rates would likely stay lower than the 5‑year horizon projections for the next 18 months. The clarity gave borrowers and lenders more confidence, translating into tighter spreads for mortgage securitization.

Impact on Oregon’s Housing Market

Oregon has seen a gradual slowdown in home‑price growth, with the Portland metropolitan area’s median home price slipping by 1.2 % in August from a year earlier. However, the new rate environment is already making a difference on the transaction side.

“We’ve seen a noticeable uptick in loan applications,” says Karen Morales, a mortgage broker at Harbor Home Lending. “Last week, the volume of 30‑year fixed‑rate applications jumped 12 % compared to the same week a month ago. Many buyers who were on the sidelines are finally entering the market.”

The rate reduction is especially relevant for first‑time buyers. A 30‑year fixed rate of 6.12 % reduces the estimated monthly payment on a $500,000 home from $3,000 to $2,900, assuming a 20 % down payment and a 3.5 % private mortgage insurance (PMI) cost. That extra $100 per month can be a decisive factor for buyers who have been priced out.

Real estate analysts predict that the rate decline could spur a modest rebound in transaction volume in the next quarter. “If the trend continues, we could see the Portland market close the year with a 3‑5 % rebound in home sales,” says Michael Lee, chief economist at Oregon Housing Insights.

Cautionary Notes

Despite the optimism, experts advise caution. The Fed’s policy language suggests that rates could rise again if inflation persists. Moreover, the housing supply remains tight; Oregon’s inventory is still below the 4‑month level seen in 2019. If new construction does not catch up, price appreciation could still outpace the benefit of lower rates.

“We’re in a delicate balance,” notes Reyes. “The lower rates are a gift, but we’re still facing the twin challenges of supply constraints and a potential uptick in inflation. Buyers should be mindful of how long the rate environment will hold.”

Key Takeaways

The new averages bring the 30‑year fixed rate down to its lowest level since last October, offering a temporary reprieve for homebuyers across Oregon. While the market remains vulnerable to macroeconomic shifts, the current environment signals a potential window of opportunity for those looking to lock in a mortgage and step onto the property ladder.

For more detailed data, visit Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey page and the U.S. Treasury yield curve listings.