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Map shows where house prices are rising--and falling--most

  //house-home.news-articles.net/content/2025/08/2 .. re-house-prices-are-rising-and-falling-most.html
  Published in House and Home on Friday, August 29th 2025 at 5:43 GMT by Newsweek
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Where House Prices Are Skyrocketing — and Where They’re Plummeting

A brand‑new interactive map released by Newsweek in late 2024 pulls back the curtain on the United States’ most volatile real‑estate markets. By overlaying Zillow’s Home Value Index (ZHVI) onto a U.S. map, the graphic shows where median home prices are rising the fastest and where they’re falling the most. The result is a vivid illustration of how the pandemic‑driven housing boom, supply shortages, and soaring mortgage rates are reshaping the country’s property landscape.

How the Map Was Made

The map uses data from Zillow’s Home Value Index, which tracks median home prices for each metropolitan statistical area (MSA) on a month‑over‑month basis. Zillow aggregates closed‑sale data from public records and multiple listing services (MLS) and then smooths the series to account for seasonal variations. For this map, the authors compared the most recent monthly ZHVI values with the corresponding values from the previous year, so the color key reflects year‑over‑year price change.

Newsweek’s graphic is interactive: users can click on a city or county and see a pop‑up panel with the exact percentage change, the raw median price, and a short commentary from Zillow’s research team. Behind the scenes, the data is refreshed weekly, so the map captures the most recent shifts in market dynamics.

The Fastest‑Rising Markets

The heatmap paints a stark picture of rapid price gains concentrated in the Sun Belt and Midwest. The top‑tiering cities include:

In each of these markets, demand has outpaced supply, a trend driven in large part by remote‑work culture that has pushed families north of the Gulf Coast in search of more space and lower taxes. Tight housing inventories—often less than 100,000 homes on the market—combined with aggressive bidding wars have pushed median prices into the $400‑$500k range. In Phoenix, the median price jumped from roughly $380,000 last year to $500,000 this year, a record‑breaking 27 % rise.

Zillow’s research notes that “inventory‑to‑demand gaps” are the primary driver of these gains, and that many of these markets now see a ratio of inventory to demand that is historically low. In some cases, new construction has stalled, exacerbating the crunch. The result is a “price inflation” that could be unsustainable if interest rates continue to climb.

The Fastest‑Falling Markets

Not all regions are experiencing the same surge. On the other side of the map, a handful of MSAs are shrinking—an alarming trend for investors who had previously leaned into a nationwide bull market. The biggest price declines are found in the Northeast and some of the Midwest:

The article explains that the drop is largely attributable to a “spike in mortgage rates” that has hit the $5–6 % range for 30‑year fixed loans. With higher borrowing costs, many prospective buyers have pulled back, and sellers in over‑valued markets have been forced to reduce prices. In addition, the Northeast has seen a wave of “outmigration” to the South and Midwest as residents seek lower taxes and more affordable housing.

The decline in New York City is particularly noteworthy. The city’s median home price fell from roughly $1.05 million to $950,000, the steepest drop in the map. The article cites the state’s high property taxes and rising rents as factors pushing many buyers toward more affordable suburban and exurban areas.

Regional Patterns and Economic Drivers

The map highlights a clear “Sun Belt boom” and a “Great Lakes correction.” Texas, Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina are the leaders on the rise; Michigan, New York, and Illinois are the front‑line losers. In the Midwest, the “Great Lakes” corridor—especially cities like Detroit and Cleveland—has seen a significant price decline, with Zillow reporting that the median price of a 2024 home in Detroit is now 12 % lower than a year ago.

Beyond local factors, national macro forces are at play. The article references data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics that show inflation is still running at double‑digit rates, which in turn has pushed the Federal Reserve to hike the federal funds rate to 5.25 % in 2024. That policy shift has rippled through the mortgage market, driving 30‑year fixed rates to a 4‑year high. Zillow’s research team explains that the combination of “high inflation and high mortgage rates” is “straining buyer affordability” and is contributing to the price corrections seen in the Northeast.

The article also notes that the supply crunch is not uniform. While the Sun Belt is still struggling to keep up with demand, many of the falling markets have a surplus of inventory, which helps drive prices down. Zillow’s ZHVI methodology takes inventory levels into account, and the interactive pop‑ups on the map provide a snapshot of each city’s inventory‑to‑sales ratio.

Where to Go for More Data

The Newsweek map is just the surface. For readers who want deeper analysis, Zillow offers a companion dashboard that breaks down price changes by ZIP code and provides a forecast model. The dashboard also includes a “Housing Affordability Index” that compares median home prices to median household income in each MSA.

Other resources linked in the article include:

• Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) – Provides weekly mortgage rate data, showing how 30‑year fixed rates have evolved over the past two years.
• U.S. Census Bureau – Offers median household income figures by state and metro area, which can be cross‑referenced against price changes to gauge affordability.
• Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) – Allows users to explore the relationship between interest rates and home price dynamics.

These tools collectively paint a comprehensive picture of how national economic policy, supply constraints, and local market sentiment are shaping the real‑estate market.

What This Means for Buyers and Investors

The map’s stark visual disparities serve as a cautionary tale. In the rising markets, home prices are already “high on a historical basis,” and the pace of growth may slow or reverse if mortgage rates climb further. On the other hand, the declining markets present opportunities for buyers who can afford the initial purchase, but those markets also carry higher risk: a sudden shift in local economic conditions could drive prices even lower.

For investors, diversification remains key. The map underscores that a national portfolio built exclusively on “hot” Sun Belt properties could be vulnerable to a nationwide interest‑rate shock. Meanwhile, a portfolio with exposure to “cooling” Northeast markets might benefit from lower entry costs, but could also suffer from lower resale values if the local economy weakens.

The article concludes with a sobering reminder: “The housing market is no longer a monolith.” The interactive map, updated weekly, will continue to highlight the shifting dynamics of U.S. real‑estate, offering both a snapshot of current conditions and a preview of potential future changes.

In summary, Newsweek’s latest interactive map, powered by Zillow’s Home Value Index, exposes a sharply divided nation. While the Sun Belt is in the throes of a price surge driven by low inventory and persistent demand, the Northeast and parts of the Midwest are experiencing a price correction fueled by higher mortgage rates and an oversupply of homes. Whether you’re a homebuyer, a seller, or an investor, the map’s data should inform every decision—and remind us that housing markets are, as always, subject to rapid change.