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Trump's Approval Rating Soars to Record High

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  Published in House and Home on Sunday, February 15th 2026 at 13:07 GMT by Newsweek
      Locales: New York, Washington, D.C., Florida, UNITED STATES

Washington D.C. - February 15th, 2026 - Former President Donald Trump continues to be a dominant force in American politics, and recent data suggests a remarkable shift in public sentiment. Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight reported earlier this week that Trump's approval rating has reached a record high of 58.4%, a figure that has sent ripples through the political landscape. This represents a significant leap from his average 41% approval rating during his presidency (2017-2021) and begs the question: what's driving this unexpected surge in popularity nearly five years after leaving office?

FiveThirtyEight's model, a sophisticated amalgamation of numerous polls weighted by accuracy and sample size, isn't simply capturing fleeting opinion. It incorporates crucial economic indicators and evolving demographic trends, offering a broader, more nuanced view of the American electorate. The model isn't without its caveats - it's a projection, not a simple tally - but the consistency of data feeding into it points to a real and demonstrable change in how a significant portion of the American public views the former president.

Beyond the Numbers: Dissecting the Drivers of Approval

The initial post-presidency dip in approval ratings for Trump was considerable, fueled by the aftermath of the January 6th insurrection and ongoing legal challenges. However, over the past two years, a steady climb has been observed. Several key factors appear to be at play.

Economic Sentiment: While inflation remained a persistent issue throughout 2024 and early 2025, perceptions of economic stability have improved drastically. The current administration, while initially critical of Trump's economic policies, has quietly adopted several key tenets, including a focus on deregulation and a more protectionist trade stance. This subtle shift has resonated with voters who felt left behind by globalization, a demographic that largely supported Trump in the past. A recent study by the Brookings Institution highlighted a correlation between increased domestic manufacturing - spurred by policies reminiscent of Trump's "America First" agenda - and increased economic optimism in traditionally rust-belt states.

Political Realignment: The American political landscape has undergone a notable realignment. The traditional coalitions of both parties are fracturing. Moderate Republicans and Independents, alienated by the increasing progressive stances of the Democratic Party, are increasingly finding common ground with Trump's populist message. Conversely, some traditionally Democratic voters, particularly working-class individuals in key swing states, are shifting their allegiance. This isn't a complete party switch, but rather a softening of traditional loyalties, creating a larger pool of potential Trump supporters.

The Role of Media and Social Media: The media ecosystem has significantly contributed to the narrative surrounding Trump. While mainstream media outlets often present a critical perspective, conservative news sources and social media platforms provide a platform for amplifying positive coverage and reaching a dedicated base. Algorithms on platforms like Truth Social and X (formerly Twitter) have demonstrably created echo chambers where Trump's supporters are consistently reinforced in their beliefs. A report from the Pew Research Center found that the consumption of news from highly partisan sources is at an all-time high.

The 2024 Election Shadow & Forward Look to 2028: The looming specter of the 2024 presidential election - and the controversial outcome that followed - continues to shape public opinion. Many voters, disillusioned with the current administration's performance, are looking back on the Trump years with a sense of nostalgia, particularly regarding issues like border security and economic growth. Moreover, the legal battles and investigations surrounding the 2024 election have fueled accusations of political persecution, galvanizing Trump's base and attracting sympathy from some who might otherwise disagree with his policies.

Looking ahead, the consistently high approval rating could pave the way for another run at the presidency in 2028, although Trump has not yet officially announced his candidacy. Even if he chooses not to run, his influence over the Republican Party remains considerable, and he is likely to play a kingmaker role in future elections. The current data demonstrates he holds a substantial sway over a significant segment of the electorate, and dismissing him as a spent force would be a miscalculation. The FiveThirtyEight data serves as a crucial indicator, but further analysis will be needed to understand the long-term implications of this unprecedented surge in approval.