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Texas Leads U.S. Housing Boom with 120,000 New Units by 2026

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  Published in House and Home on Wednesday, December 24th 2025 at 5:27 GMT by Newsweek

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A New Look at the U.S. Housing Boom: What the 2026 Forecast Map Reveals

A recently published map from Newsweek shows a clear picture of where the United States will be building the most new housing units by 2026. Based on data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the Census Bureau, the graphic breaks down projected construction volumes by state, highlighting a pronounced concentration of new homes and apartments in the South, West, and parts of the Northeast. While the map is a snapshot, the trends it illustrates speak to larger forces reshaping the American housing market over the next decade.

How the Forecast Was Made

The map draws on HUD’s “Future Housing Supply” model, a sophisticated forecasting tool that blends historical construction trends, demographic projections, and economic assumptions. The model predicts the number of housing units that will be added to the country each year through 2030, broken down by state and by housing type (single‑family homes, multifamily apartments, mobile homes, etc.). To translate those numbers into a visual form, the Newsweek article overlayed the data onto a U.S. map, using color gradients to indicate projected construction volume. The result is an instantly recognizable “heat map” that points to the most active construction zones.

The article also links to HUD’s own “Housing Market Outlook” page, where readers can see more granular data and the assumptions that go into the model. A related link takes you to the U.S. Census Bureau’s “Population and Housing Projections” portal, where the demographic engine that powers the forecast can be explored in more detail. Together, these resources provide a solid factual backbone for the map’s findings.

Where the Bulk of New Housing Will Be Built

The top five states slated to add the most new housing units between 2022 and 2026 are:

1. Texas – Texas leads by a wide margin, with an estimated 120,000 new units. The state’s booming economy, relatively low cost of living, and pro‑business climate continue to attract migrants from across the country.
2. Florida – Florida’s 100,000+ projected new units reflect its status as a migration hotspot, especially for retirees and young professionals drawn to the state’s climate and lack of state income tax.
3. California – California follows with roughly 95,000 new units, a number that underscores the paradox of a state that is simultaneously experiencing a housing shortage and implementing ambitious housing policies.
4. New York – New York is expected to add about 80,000 units, driven largely by the continued demand in the New York City metropolitan area.
5. Georgia – Georgia tops the list of mid‑market states, with an estimated 70,000 new units. Atlanta’s growing tech and logistics sectors underpin this surge.

Beyond the top five, other states with significant projected construction include Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona, Ohio, and Illinois. In the Northeast, states such as Connecticut and Massachusetts also show elevated construction volumes, though their totals are modest compared to the South and West.

What’s Behind the Numbers?

Population Growth – The Census projections reveal that Texas and Florida will experience the largest population gains over the next five years, largely due to migration from the Northeast and Midwest. This influx drives demand for new housing, and the forecast reflects that trend.

Economic Expansion – States with fast‑growing job markets, particularly in technology, logistics, and renewable energy, are more likely to see new construction. The article links to a Bloomberg piece on the Texas labor market and an academic paper on Arizona’s solar industry, both of which help explain why these states are top construction performers.

Policy Environment – Local zoning reforms, tax incentives, and streamlined permitting processes play a decisive role. The Newsweek article references a California legislative initiative (SB 50) that mandates higher density near transit corridors, which is a key driver of the projected single‑family and multifamily housing in the state. Similarly, Texas’s “Housing for All” initiative has relaxed zoning restrictions in many municipalities.

Affordability and Land Availability – In many states, high land costs push developers toward multi‑unit projects, while in others, abundant undeveloped land allows for single‑family subdivisions. The map’s color scheme, which distinguishes by housing type in a supplementary inset, illustrates that Texas and Florida are building more single‑family homes, whereas California’s growth is split more evenly between single‑family and multifamily units.

Implications for Residents and Policymakers

The sheer volume of new construction promises to address, at least in part, the chronic housing shortage that has plagued U.S. metropolitan areas for decades. However, the article cautions that building more houses is not a panacea. The accompanying links point to a New York Times analysis that underscores the “affordability gap” – the fact that many new units are priced out of reach for low‑ and middle‑income households. The Newsweek piece also references a research paper from the Urban Institute that discusses how rapid construction can exacerbate displacement if not coupled with protective measures such as rent control or inclusionary zoning.

From an environmental perspective, the article highlights that new construction carries a carbon footprint, but also opens opportunities for energy‑efficient and resilient building practices. A linked feature on the Sierra Club’s website details how states are integrating green building standards into their new housing plans.

Looking Ahead

While the map projects construction through 2026, the trends it reveals have a longer horizon. The Newsweek article includes a “future outlook” section that projects continued high demand for housing in Texas, Florida, and California through the 2030s, driven by both demographic momentum and economic dynamism. The linked HUD “Housing Market Outlook” pages offer deeper dives into 10‑year forecasts, allowing policymakers and developers to plan accordingly.

In sum, the 2026 housing map is more than a visual curiosity; it is a diagnostic tool that distills complex data into a format that policymakers, developers, and citizens can readily interpret. It underscores that the U.S. housing future is uneven, concentrated in a handful of states that are grappling with the dual imperatives of growth and affordability. As construction activity ramps up, the accompanying policy debates—around zoning, subsidies, and environmental standards—will be the true determinants of how beneficial the new housing boom will be for all Americans.