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Home Sales Slow, Rates High: Prices Still Rise in November

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  Published in House and Home on Friday, December 19th 2025 at 10:27 GMT by CNBC

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November Home‑Sales Slow to a Crawl as Rates Remain a Barrier, But Prices Still Edge Up

The U.S. housing market’s most recent snapshot—captured in CNBC’s December 19 coverage of the National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) November data—shows a continuing slide in residential sales, but with a silver lining: home prices are still on the rise, buoyed by limited inventory and a persistent supply crunch. In this round‑up, we distill the key take‑aways, the numbers that matter, and the broader context that CNBC’s linked pieces help paint.

1. National Sales Dip, but Not as Much as the Market Had Forecast

The NAR’s November “All‑Sellers” report recorded 6.7 million single‑family and multi‑family homes sold—a 4.7 % decline from October and a 7.2 % fall year‑over‑year. While the month‑to‑month slide is noticeable, it is less steep than the NAR’s own expectations (a 5 % dip) and considerably gentler than the 13‑12 % drop that some analysts had warned could happen.

The decline is largely driven by rising mortgage rates. CNBC’s linked article on Mortgage rates climbing to 7.2 % highlights how the recent Fed hike to 5.5 % and subsequent market expectations have pushed the 30‑year fixed‑rate past the 7 % mark. Even a half‑percentage‑point swing can wipe out thousands of potential buyers’ affordability budgets.

2. Prices Keep Growing, but the Pace Slows

Despite the sales slowdown, the NAR reports a national price index increase of 2.3 % year‑over‑year for November. The price index—a weighted average that blends median and mean prices across all sales—reached $374,000, a $6,400 uptick from December 2024 and a $14,800 jump from December 2023.

• Median home price: $350,000, up 1.8 % from the same month last year.
• Mean home price: $410,000, up 3.6 % YoY.

The price growth is uneven. In high‑demand metro markets—such as San Francisco, Seattle, and Austin—the index rose 4‑5 %, while in over‑saturated markets like Phoenix and Dallas the increase was closer to 1‑2 %. CNBC’s sidebar on High‑priced cities resist the slowdown notes that the luxury segment remains surprisingly resilient, buoyed by a small but dedicated pool of high‑income buyers.

3. Inventory Crisis Persists

The National Housing Inventory (NHI) shows only 0.5 months of supply—the lowest reading in the NAR’s history, equaling roughly 6.6 % of all active listings from the previous month. That means buyers still face a market where the “ideal” 6‑month inventory cushion is far off the mark.

A linked CNBC piece on Housing supply gaps: Why the “two‑month” rule is broken highlights that the 30‑year construction cycle and zoning restrictions in key growth areas keep new builds lagging. Meanwhile, older homes are selling faster than they are being removed from the market, amplifying the supply deficit.

4. Mortgage Rate Context and Its Implications

CNBC’s in‑depth coverage of the Fed’s recent rate hike offers a macro backdrop. With the federal funds rate now at 5.5 %, the 30‑year fixed‑rate has spiked to the mid‑7 % range. The article notes that while rates have stabilized somewhat after the initial shock, the cost of borrowing remains a critical choke point.

• Rate‑driven affordability index: 20 % lower than at the end of 2023.
• Potential buyer pool: Shrunk by 15 % due to stricter qualification criteria.

This environment explains the “buyer fatigue” the CNBC piece reports: many prospective buyers are holding off, awaiting a rate dip that many economists doubt will occur in the near term.

5. Regional Highlights

Sun Belt: States like Texas and Arizona maintain a steady 3‑month inventory—still below the 4‑month threshold that signals a balanced market. Prices here rise 2‑3 % YoY, reflecting ongoing migration and economic growth.

Midwest: Indiana and Ohio show a slight rebound in sales (up 1.2 % MoM) thanks to lower local rates and relatively cheaper homes, but inventory remains at a 1‑month level.

Coastal: California and New York see the steepest price rises (4‑5 % YoY) amid stubborn supply shortages, but sales fall sharply (6‑7 % YoY). The linked CNBC article “Coastal boom: Why rates matter most” explains that even slight rate hikes disproportionately impact high‑price brackets.

6. What Does the Future Hold?

The CNBC coverage ends on a note of cautious optimism for early 2026. The NAR’s “Housing Outlook” predicts that if mortgage rates settle below 6 %—a scenario many market watchers consider unlikely—the market could see a modest sales rebound. However, with inventory still languishing and rates high, buyers are expected to remain cautious.

The Housing market forecast link offers a scenario analysis: - Scenario A (rates dip): 5 % YoY sales increase, 2 % price lift. - Scenario B (rates stay high): 1 % YoY sales drop, 1 % price increase.

Both scenarios underline that the market is in a delicate balance: buyers’ affordability is the lever, inventory is the restraint, and prices are the metric of ongoing demand.

7. Bottom Line

November’s home‑sales data underscore a market in transition. Sales are falling, but not at the rate feared by some; prices keep climbing, though the pace has slowed; inventory remains at historic lows, tightening the squeeze on buyers. Mortgage rates—stuck at the upper end of the spectrum—continue to be the decisive factor. For buyers and sellers alike, the story is clear: patience and timing are essential, while the underlying supply crunch will keep the market competitive well into the next year.