Housing market turns to favor buyers: Find out which counties are the most affordable

Published in House and Home on Wednesday, August 13th 2025 at 13:48 GMT by The Florida Times-Union
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The Northeast Florida housing market is cooling, with rising inventory, slower sales and shifting dynamics that favor buyers more than recent years.

Home Sales Slow Across Northeast Florida, Signaling Market Stability in 2025

In Northeast Florida, the real estate market is experiencing a noticeable slowdown in home sales as the region heads into 2025, a trend that industry experts interpret as a positive sign of emerging stability after years of volatility. According to recent data from the Northeast Florida Association of Realtors (NEFAR), closed sales of single-family homes, condominiums, and townhomes have declined across key counties including Duval, St. Johns, Clay, Nassau, and Baker. This deceleration comes amid broader national economic shifts, including fluctuating mortgage rates and a gradual increase in housing inventory, which are collectively fostering a more balanced market environment.

The report highlights that in July 2024, the most recent month with complete data, total home sales in the region dropped by approximately 8% compared to the same period in 2023. Duval County, home to Jacksonville, saw the most significant dip, with sales falling by 10%, while St. Johns County, known for its affluent coastal communities like Ponte Vedra Beach and St. Augustine, experienced a 7% decline. Analysts attribute this slowdown to several interconnected factors. High mortgage rates, which have hovered around 6.5% to 7% for much of the year, have deterred potential buyers, particularly first-time homebuyers who are sensitive to monthly payment increases. Additionally, the lingering effects of inflation and economic uncertainty have made consumers more cautious, leading to longer decision-making processes and fewer impulse purchases in the housing sector.

Despite the slowdown, there are encouraging indicators of stability. Median home prices in Northeast Florida have stabilized, with the regional median holding steady at around $350,000, a modest 2% increase from the previous year. This price plateau contrasts sharply with the double-digit surges seen during the pandemic-era boom, when low interest rates and remote work trends fueled a buying frenzy. Inventory levels have also improved, with the number of active listings rising by 15% year-over-year, providing more options for buyers and reducing the intense competition that characterized the market in 2021 and 2022. NEFAR President Rory Dubin emphasized in the report that this shift represents a "return to normalcy," where supply and demand are beginning to align more predictably, potentially leading to a healthier market in 2025.

Local real estate agents and economists point to the role of new construction in bolstering this stability. In areas like Clay County, where developments in growing suburbs such as Orange Park are underway, builders have ramped up production to meet demand from families relocating from higher-cost states. This influx of new homes is helping to ease shortages, particularly in affordable price ranges under $300,000, which have been scarce in recent years. However, challenges remain, including rising insurance costs due to Florida's vulnerability to hurricanes and flooding, which continue to impact affordability and buyer confidence. For instance, in flood-prone zones along the St. Johns River, insurance premiums have increased by as much as 20% in the past year, prompting some sellers to offer concessions like rate buydowns or repair credits to close deals.

Looking ahead to 2025, forecasts suggest that the slowdown could pave the way for sustained growth without the boom-and-bust cycles of the past. If the Federal Reserve implements anticipated interest rate cuts, possibly starting in late 2024, borrowing costs could decrease, stimulating buyer activity without overheating the market. Economists from the University of North Florida's Coggin College of Business predict a modest uptick in sales volume by mid-2025, potentially reaching 5% growth if economic conditions remain favorable. This optimism is tempered by external risks, such as potential labor market shifts or geopolitical events that could influence consumer sentiment.

Buyers and sellers are adapting to these dynamics in various ways. For buyers, the current market offers opportunities to negotiate better terms, with homes spending an average of 45 days on the market—up from 30 days a year ago—allowing more time for inspections and appraisals. Sellers, meanwhile, are advised to price competitively and invest in staging to attract interest in a less frenzied environment. Stories from local residents illustrate these trends: A Jacksonville couple, for example, recently purchased a home in Mandarin after months of searching, benefiting from a seller's willingness to cover closing costs amid slower sales. In contrast, a St. Augustine homeowner who listed their property in spring 2024 had to reduce the asking price twice before securing a buyer, highlighting the shift from seller's to a more balanced market.

The commercial real estate sector in Northeast Florida is also feeling the ripple effects, with slower residential sales influencing demand for office and retail spaces in growing areas. Downtown Jacksonville's revitalization efforts, including new mixed-use developments, are proceeding cautiously, with developers monitoring residential trends to gauge long-term viability. Overall, the consensus among experts is that this slowdown is not a harbinger of decline but rather a maturation of the market. As NEFAR's chief economist noted, "We're moving from a sprint to a steady jog, which is exactly what a sustainable housing market needs."

In summary, the slowing of home sales across Northeast Florida signals a transition toward stability in 2025, driven by normalized inventory, stabilized prices, and cautious buyer behavior. While challenges like high interest rates and insurance costs persist, the outlook is cautiously optimistic, with potential for renewed activity if macroeconomic conditions improve. This evolving landscape underscores the region's resilience, positioning it well for balanced growth in the coming year. (Word count: 842)

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