Existing-home inventory up 14% from a year ago
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Existing Home Inventory Climbs 14% From a Year Ago, Yet Still Far Below Balanced Levels
In a recent HousingWire report, the number of existing homes listed for sale in the United States has risen 14% compared with the same period last year, climbing from approximately 1.9 million to 2.2 million active listings. The surge in inventory comes amid a continued imbalance between supply and demand, with the housing market still operating at a fraction of the “balanced” inventory level that would keep home‑sales volume steady.
The data, sourced from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and corroborated by the Realtor.com and Zillow dashboards, show that the current inventory sits at roughly 0.8 months of supply—meaning the existing home stock can satisfy the current rate of sales for less than a month. In contrast, a healthy, balanced market typically requires 4‑6 months of inventory to keep the market in equilibrium. The 14% jump is the largest year‑over‑year increase since 2019, yet the market remains in the deep‑short supply territory that has defined the post‑pandemic housing boom.
Why the Inventory Increase?
Housing experts attribute the uptick to a combination of factors:
Sellers Adding Incentives
Many homeowners, recognizing the scarcity of inventory, are offering incentives such as covering closing costs, adding home warranties, or offering “cash‑in‑hand” bonuses. These tactics help sellers attract buyers in a highly competitive environment, leading to a short‑term boost in listings.Shifts in Demand
While demand for homes remains robust, it has begun to level off in the second half of 2023. Mortgage rates have risen from the historic lows of 1‑2 % that fueled the previous boom, dampening buyer enthusiasm and allowing more homes to stay on the market longer before they sell.New Construction Lag
Construction activity, which has traditionally helped keep supply in line with demand, is still catching up after the pandemic‑era slowdown. The lag between planning, permitting, and building results in fewer new units entering the market, putting additional pressure on the existing‑home inventory.
Regional Disparities
The article highlighted significant regional differences. The West and Midwest experienced the most pronounced increases in inventory, with the West seeing a 20% rise and the Midwest a 12% jump. In contrast, the South and Northeast showed smaller increases of 8% and 6%, respectively. Even within these regions, states like Texas and Arizona led the way, reflecting their strong population growth and continued demand for new homes.
Price Trends and Market Outlook
Despite the higher inventory, home‑prices are still on the rise. Median sales prices have climbed 9.9% year‑over‑year to $440,000, the highest since 2006. The article notes that while the inventory increase could eventually temper price growth, the current supply shortfall keeps the market in a seller‑favorable position.
“Home prices are not yet back to pre‑COVID levels, and the inventory bump is modest relative to the overall stock of homes,” said industry analyst Matt McCarty. “If rates continue to climb, we could see a further easing of demand, which may lead to a slowdown in price appreciation. However, the inventory level is still well below what would be required for a balanced market.”
Linking to the Data
The HousingWire report is supplemented by a link to the NAR’s “Housing Market Report,” which provides an in‑depth analysis of sales volume, inventory, and price trends. The NAR dashboard lists detailed statistics on the average time on market and the percentage of homes sold above asking price. A separate link directs readers to HousingWire’s “Data Center,” where a real‑time inventory chart shows the month‑to‑month changes and provides a historical perspective on inventory levels across all 50 states.
The article also references the Realtor.com “Home Value Index,” which tracks changes in home values across metropolitan areas. A quick glance at the index indicates that, while some markets have begun to plateau, many still see double‑digit growth year‑over‑year.
Implications for Buyers and Sellers
For buyers, the higher inventory may present a slightly better opportunity to find a suitable home, especially in markets where new listings are more plentiful. However, competition remains fierce, and many sellers continue to price homes above market value, driving up the overall price level.
Sellers, on the other hand, face a more crowded field. The 14% increase in listings means that each home is competing for a larger pool of buyers. Sellers may need to consider strategic pricing, offering incentives, or staging to differentiate their properties in a saturated market.
Bottom Line
The 14% rise in existing home inventory is a notable uptick, but it falls short of the level needed to bring the market into balance. With inventory still at only 0.8 months of supply, the housing market remains in a state of shortness that favors sellers. However, the gradual increase in listings, combined with rising mortgage rates and a slowing pace of new construction, suggests that the market could shift toward a more buyer‑friendly environment in the coming months. Home‑owners and prospective buyers alike should stay tuned to the latest data from the NAR, Realtor.com, and HousingWire’s own dashboard for real‑time updates on inventory levels, price trends, and market dynamics.
Read the Full HousingWire Article at:
[ https://www.housingwire.com/articles/existing-home-inventory-up-14-from-a-year-ago/ ]