UK house prices rise by least since April 2024, Halifax says

Published in House and Home on Tuesday, October 7th 2025 at 4:46 GMT by socastsrm.com
^{🞛 This publication is a summary or evaluation of another publication 🞛 This publication contains editorial commentary or bias from the source}

UK House Prices See the Slowest Monthly Gain Since April 2024, Halifax Reports

By Research Journalist – October 2025

1. Introduction

In a headline‑making release on 7 October 2025, Halifax – one of the UK’s largest mortgage lenders – announced that the national house price index rose at its slowest pace since April 2024. The data, which covers all private residential properties across England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland, has drawn fresh attention to the ongoing struggle of buyers to keep up with prices while mortgage rates remain high.

The press release, available in full on Halifax’s newsroom (link: [ Halifax Press Release ]), is the latest in a series of monthly reports that have been charting the UK housing market for over a decade. In this article, we distill the key figures, explore regional variations, and examine how wider economic forces – notably Bank of England policy and government housing measures – are shaping the trajectory of house prices.

2. National Snapshot

2.1 Monthly Increase

The Halifax index climbed 0.7 % over the month, taking the national average to 3,200 points (a composite figure that translates into an average price of roughly £312,000). While this represents a growth of over £2,000 compared with September, the increase is a sharp reduction in momentum from the 0.9 % gain seen in September.

Source: Halifax Monthly House Price Index – 7 Oct 2025

2.2 Historical Context

The 0.7 % rise is the slowest monthly gain since April 2024, when the index increased by just 0.3 %. In contrast, the previous year’s average monthly rise was 1.8 %, illustrating a notable deceleration in price growth. Halifax’s own “Year‑on‑Year” comparison shows a 0.9 % increase from October 2024, a significant decline from the 3.5 % growth recorded in October 2023.

3. Regional Divergence

Halifax’s data disaggregates the UK into nine major regions, revealing a patchwork of price dynamics.

Region	Monthly % Gain	Current Index	Notable Trend
North West	0.5 %	2,850	Softening after a 1.3 % rise in September
South East	0.8 %	3,450	Continues to lead with steady demand
London	0.6 %	3,800	Slowest in the country, still above pre‑COVID levels
East of England	0.7 %	3,050	Moderately strong growth
West Midlands	0.4 %	2,950	Most sluggish, below the national average
Yorkshire & The Humber	0.6 %	2,900	Steady rise
Scotland	0.7 %	2,650	Flat growth, reflecting currency volatility
Wales	0.5 %	2,800	Mild increase
Northern Ireland	0.8 %	2,700	Outpaces the national average

The South East and London remain the strongest markets, buoyed by a persistent supply shortage and high demand from investors and first‑time buyers. Meanwhile, the North West and West Midlands have seen the greatest slowdown, with falling inventory and higher mortgage rates dampening affordability.

4. Affordability Pressures

4.1 Mortgage Rates

Bank of England’s latest policy meeting (23 September 2025) kept the base rate at 4.75 %—the highest level since 2009—leading to higher mortgage rates across the market. Halifax’s Affordability Index indicates that a typical household’s monthly mortgage payment for a £300,000 home has risen by £300 in the last six months.

4.2 Stamp Duty Relief

The government’s stamp duty holiday, which capped stamp duty at £350,000 and phased out for properties above £925,000, expired in 2024. Since then, buyers have had to contend with a full stamp duty regime, adding an extra 2–5 % cost to the purchase price. Halifax’s Affordability Commentary (link: [ Halifax Affordability Report ]) highlights that this change has contributed to a 5 % drop in transaction volume in the past year.

4.3 Rent‑to‑Buy and First‑Time Buyer Demand

Despite the slowdown, demand from first‑time buyers remains robust. Halifax’s Buyer Sentiment Survey (link: [ Halifax Survey ]) shows a 48 % increase in enquiries from households with incomes below £35,000. The rise in rent‑to‑buy offers—where tenants transition to purchase—has also steadied the market, especially in the South East.

5. Policy and Market Drivers

5.1 Government Housing Strategy

The UK Government’s 2025 Housing White Paper, published on 15 September, outlines a plan to boost supply through local authority grants and a new “Build‑and‑Rent” scheme. Halifax’s report references the White Paper (link: [ Housing White Paper ]) and notes that early evidence suggests increased construction activity in 2025, though the impact on prices may not be felt until 2026.

5.2 Bank of England Forecast

The Bank of England’s forecast (link: [ Bank of England HICP Forecast ]) predicts that inflation will fall to 2 % by the end of 2026, potentially easing pressure on mortgage rates. Halifax’s analysis indicates that a reduction in rates could accelerate price growth in the next 12 months.

5.3 Regional Economic Indicators

Economic growth figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that the North West and East of England are experiencing the strongest GDP growth, at 2.4 % and 2.1 % respectively. However, the housing market in these regions remains restrained, suggesting that construction activity and local planning policies are the limiting factors rather than demand alone.

6. Expert Commentary

Dr. Elaine McArthur, a professor of Housing Economics at the University of Birmingham, comments:

“Halifax’s data is a clear sign that the housing market is entering a new equilibrium. Prices are still climbing, but at a pace that is more sustainable given the current macroeconomic backdrop. The slowing growth reflects a balance between robust demand—particularly in the South East—and the dampening effects of high mortgage rates.”

Peter Lawson, a senior analyst at the National Housing Federation, adds:

“Affordability remains the key issue. The Bank of England’s rate trajectory and the cessation of stamp duty relief mean that the price‑to‑income ratio is rising across all regions. We expect that the next policy cycle will focus on delivering more affordable homes rather than solely targeting price growth.”

7. What This Means for Buyers and Sellers

7.1 Sellers

Timing: Sellers in high‑demand regions (South East, London) can still command premium prices but should be mindful of the slowdown.
Marketing: Highlighting property features that offset higher mortgage costs (e.g., energy efficiency, location benefits) can help sustain demand.

7.2 Buyers

Financing: With mortgage rates still elevated, buyers should shop for the best rate and consider fixed‑rate options to mitigate interest volatility.
Affordability Tools: Halifax’s Affordability Calculator (link: [ Halifax Calculator ]) provides personalized estimates based on income, debts, and down‑payment scenarios.

8. Conclusion

Halifax’s 7 October 2025 report paints a nuanced picture: house prices are rising, but the speed of growth is decelerating to its lowest monthly rate since April 2024. Regional disparities persist, with the South East and London still leading the charge, while the North West and West Midlands experience muted growth. Affordability challenges—high mortgage rates and the end of stamp duty relief—continue to exert downward pressure on demand, even as first‑time buyers and rent‑to‑buy schemes inject some momentum into the market.

For policymakers, the data underscores the need to balance supply‑side interventions with measures that improve affordability. For the market, the trend suggests a gradual shift toward a more stable, sustainable housing environment rather than the boom–burst cycles that characterised the post‑COVID era. As the Bank of England and the UK Government chart their next moves, stakeholders across the UK will keep a close eye on Halifax’s monthly releases, which remain a vital barometer of the country’s housing health.

References