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Mortgage Rates Plummet to Lowest Since 2022

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  Published in House and Home on Wednesday, February 25th 2026 at 14:41 GMT by MarketWatch
      Locale: Not Specified, UNITED STATES

Mortgage Rates Continue Descent: Experts Predict March Trajectory and Beyond

Wednesday, February 25th, 2026 - The housing market is experiencing a notable shift as mortgage rates have fallen to their lowest point since early 2022, igniting cautious optimism amongst potential homebuyers and industry professionals alike. The current dip has sparked a flurry of speculation regarding the future direction of these rates, particularly as March approaches.

The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage currently stands at 6.63%, a significant decrease from the 7.03% recorded just the previous week, according to Freddie Mac. This decline is largely attributed to recent economic data indicating a moderation in inflation, raising hopes that the Federal Reserve may soon pause - or even reverse - its course of interest rate hikes.

However, predicting the future of mortgage rates is far from straightforward. To gain a deeper understanding of the potential landscape for March and the months ahead, we consulted with five leading mortgage professionals, each offering unique insights into the factors driving these fluctuations.

Expert Predictions for March & Beyond

1. Volatility with a Potential Floor (Logan Allec, Falcon Wealth Advisors): Logan Allec, co-founder of Falcon Wealth Advisors, anticipates continued rate fluctuations in the short term. "We've seen a significant decline, but it won't be a straight path down," Allec explains. "The market is still absorbing the latest economic reports. I expect rates will establish a floor somewhere between 6% and 7%." This suggests a period of stabilization after the recent drops, but doesn't rule out further adjustments based on incoming data.

2. Sub-6% Rates Possible with Continued Cooling (Paul Desbaillets, The Mortgage Pro Group): Paul Desbaillets, a financial analyst at The Mortgage Pro Group, is more optimistic, suggesting rates could fall below 6% if the cooling inflation trend persists. "The Federal Reserve's policy decisions are pivotal," Desbaillets states. "Any signal of impending rate cuts could drive rates even lower." This scenario hinges on continued evidence that inflation is under control.

3. Inflation Data: The Deciding Factor (Sarah Deshazo, Premier Mortgage): Sarah Deshazo, a loan officer at Premier Mortgage, emphasizes the critical importance of upcoming inflation reports. "The single most important factor will be the next set of inflation numbers," she asserts. "Sustained low inflation will likely lead to further rate declines, but a resurgence in inflation could reverse this trend." This highlights the precarious balance the market currently faces.

4. Upside Risk Remains (David Bartow, Mercury Advisors): Despite the positive trend, David Bartow, head of mortgage at Mercury Advisors, cautions against complacency. "While recent data is encouraging, we can't completely dismiss the possibility of rates rising," Bartow warns. "A robust jobs report or other indicators of economic strength could prompt the Fed to maintain its current course, putting upward pressure on mortgage rates." This acknowledges the inherent resilience of the US economy.

5. Sensitivity to Economic News to Continue (Ken Deshaies, First Choice Mortgage): Ken Deshaies, a senior mortgage planner at First Choice Mortgage, predicts continued sensitivity to broader economic signals. "Mortgage rates will remain highly reactive to economic developments," Deshaies explains. "The market will be scrutinizing inflation data, Fed actions, and the overall health of the economy with extreme care." This underscores the need for borrowers and investors to stay informed.

Implications for Homebuyers

While the recent decline in mortgage rates is undoubtedly welcome news, rates remain comparatively high. Prospective homebuyers are encouraged to diligently shop for the best available rates and terms, comparing offers from multiple lenders. Obtaining pre-approval for a mortgage is also crucial, providing clarity on affordability and strengthening any future offers.

The current environment presents a window of opportunity for those considering entering the housing market, but careful consideration and thorough preparation are essential. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether this downward trend will solidify or if the market will face renewed upward pressure.

It's important to remember that these are predictions, and the economic landscape is constantly evolving. Staying informed and working with a qualified mortgage professional will be key to navigating this dynamic market.