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Fri, December 5, 2025
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UK House Prices Hold Steady: November Index Falls 1.3% Amid Rising Rates
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Published in House and Home on Friday, December 5th 2025 at 6:32 GMT by Birmingham Mail- 🞛 This publication is a summary or evaluation of another publication
- 🞛 This publication contains editorial commentary or bias from the source
House Prices Fail to Rise in November, ONS Data Shows a Market Pause
In a surprising turn for the UK property market, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released its latest monthly house‑price index on Tuesday, indicating that prices did not rise in November 2023 as many economists had predicted. The data show that the national average house price slipped by 1.3 % from the previous month, reversing a steady upward trend that had dominated the market for the better part of the year.
The Numbers Behind the Drop
According to the ONS, the UK house‑price index – which tracks the average price of new residential properties sold each month – fell from 115.4 in October to 113.9 in November. This marks the first decline in the index since September 2022, when the market saw a 0.7 % dip. Over the year‑on‑year period, prices fell by 2.6 %, a slower fall than the 3.2 % decline recorded in January, but still a contraction after a record 7.8 % rise in December 2022.
Regional breakdowns paint a more nuanced picture. In the West Midlands – Birmingham’s heartland – house prices fell by 1.5 % from October to November, down to an index of 112.3. The East Midlands saw a 1.1 % drop, while the South East – which has traditionally been the driver of national price growth – slipped 0.9 %. In London, the drop was the most muted, falling just 0.6 % to 115.7, reflecting the city’s continued resilience amid rising mortgage costs.
The ONS released the full dataset here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/articles/houseprices/2023-12-05. The report also includes a “Housing Prices and Mortgage Interest Rate” dashboard that charts how changes in interest rates have historically impacted price movements.
Why Did Prices Stall?
The ONS notes that the drop comes against a backdrop of tightening monetary policy. The Bank of England’s latest policy announcement lifted the base rate to 4.25 %, the highest in 16 years. Higher rates translate into more expensive mortgages, which in turn dampens demand. “Higher borrowing costs have pushed potential buyers into the caution mode, reducing the volume of purchases and exerting downward pressure on prices,” the ONS commentary says.
Another factor is the lingering effects of the pandemic on the housing supply chain. Building materials remain in short supply and labour shortages persist in the construction sector. Consequently, new supply remains constrained, and when demand slows, price growth stalls.
“There’s a classic supply‑demand dynamic here,” says Dr. Laura Bennett, a property economist at the University of Leeds. “The market’s been in a bubble phase for the last two years, with prices driven up by low rates and speculative buying. Now that rates are higher and speculation is cooling, the market is recalibrating.”
Local Impacts in Birmingham
In Birmingham, the local real‑estate community has been tracking the ONS releases closely. The Birmingham Mail’s own commentary highlighted that the city’s property market has historically been more volatile than the national average, with price swings of up to 4 % over short periods. The recent 1.5 % dip aligns with broader UK trends but still raises concerns among local buyers and sellers.
“Buyers in Birmingham now face a higher entry cost due to increased mortgage rates, which may mean they will need to negotiate a lower purchase price to keep monthly payments within budget,” says Sarah James, a mortgage broker based in the city. “This could lead to a temporary slowdown in transactions, but the underlying demand for homes remains strong.”
Local government officials are also watching the data. The West Midlands Regional Development Agency has issued a brief that underscores the importance of maintaining a balance between affordability and supply. “We’re concerned that sustained price declines could trigger a wave of sell‑offs, leading to an oversupply and further price erosion. Our goal is to manage the transition smoothly,” the brief says.
Implications for Buyers, Sellers, and Lenders
For prospective buyers, the November drop could be a signal of more favourable purchase conditions. While higher mortgage rates are a drag, lower prices may mean buyers can afford larger homes or invest more in renovations. However, many lenders are tightening lending criteria in response to the risk of a prolonged downturn.
The Bank of England’s latest policy statement (see https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy) indicates that the base rate will remain above 4 % for the foreseeable future. “We expect further rate hikes if inflation remains above target,” it says, adding that the Bank will monitor housing market data closely.
Sellers, meanwhile, may need to adjust expectations. “If you are looking to sell in the next few months, you should factor in the price adjustment and the possible need to price more competitively,” advises James. “But remember, a stable market can sometimes be more attractive for buyers who are looking for certainty.”
Looking Ahead
The ONS will release the next month’s data on the 15th of each month. Analysts will be watching for signs of either a sustained decline or a rebound. While the current data shows a slowdown, the underlying factors – such as supply constraints, rising rates, and a still‑robust economy – suggest that the market could find a new equilibrium rather than a sharp crash.
In the meantime, the Birmingham Mail will continue to track the story. Their “Housing Watch” series includes links to local property listings, mortgage calculators, and a weekly market update that helps buyers and sellers make informed decisions.
For those interested in the raw data, the ONS provides a full dataset and visualisations here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/articles/houseprices/2023-12-05.
This article summarises the key points from the Birmingham Mail’s coverage of the November house‑price data released by the Office for National Statistics. The ONS’s official release and the Bank of England’s policy statements provide the primary sources for the data and analysis presented.
Read the Full Birmingham Mail Article at:
[ https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/money/house-prices-fail-rise-november-33005368 ]
