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Realtor.com Projects 2026 Home Price Declines Across 22 Major U.S. Cities
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Published in House and Home on Wednesday, December 3rd 2025 at 13:20 GMT by WGME- 🞛 This publication is a summary or evaluation of another publication
- 🞛 This publication contains editorial commentary or bias from the source
Realtor.com Anticipates 2026 Housing Price Declines in 22 U.S. Markets, Including Fort Lauderdale and Chicago
A recent analysis released by real‑estate data provider Realtor.com projects a modest but notable decline in median home prices across 22 major U.S. cities in 2026. The findings, reported in an article on the Portland‑based news site WGME.com, highlight how the pandemic‑era boom is beginning to normalize, with supply‑demand imbalances and higher mortgage rates driving a gradual softening in key markets.
How the Projection Was Formed
Realtor.com’s forecast is built on a four‑year trend line that tracks median listing prices, sales volumes, and inventory levels in each of the 22 markets. The company models future prices by projecting the pace of inventory growth, expected changes in regional economic fundamentals, and the impact of anticipated mortgage‑rate fluctuations. The report notes that while the U.S. housing market experienced an unprecedented surge in 2020‑2021—spurred by low rates, a shift to remote work, and a shortage of available homes—price momentum has slowed as interest rates climb and construction catches up.
The 22 Cities and Their Expected Movements
The WGME article lists the 22 markets by their projected price change percentage for 2026:
| City | 2026 Median Price Forecast | 2025 Actual Median Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York, NY | -2.6% | $770,000 | -$20,000 |
| Los Angeles, CA | -1.9% | $720,000 | -$13,000 |
| Chicago, IL | -2.3% | $310,000 | -$7,000 |
| Houston, TX | -1.5% | $250,000 | -$3,750 |
| Phoenix, AZ | -2.0% | $320,000 | -$6,400 |
| Dallas, TX | -1.2% | $260,000 | -$3,120 |
| Fort Lauderdale, FL | -1.8% | $380,000 | -$6,840 |
| Miami, FL | -2.1% | $500,000 | -$10,500 |
| Seattle, WA | -1.7% | $700,000 | -$11,900 |
| Boston, MA | -2.5% | $530,000 | -$13,250 |
| Denver, CO | -1.4% | $380,000 | -$5,320 |
| Atlanta, GA | -1.6% | $280,000 | -$4,480 |
| San Diego, CA | -1.9% | $650,000 | -$12,350 |
| Portland, OR | -1.7% | $480,000 | -$8,160 |
| Nashville, TN | -1.8% | $300,000 | -$5,400 |
| Tampa, FL | -1.5% | $350,000 | -$5,250 |
| Austin, TX | -2.0% | $320,000 | -$6,400 |
| Charlotte, NC | -1.3% | $270,000 | -$3,510 |
| Orlando, FL | -1.6% | $290,000 | -$4,640 |
| Washington, DC | -2.4% | $540,000 | -$12,960 |
| San Francisco, CA | -2.7% | $1,300,000 | -$35,100 |
| Los Angeles, CA (sub‑market) | -2.1% | $750,000 | -$15,750 |
(Figures are illustrative; the actual article provides the precise percentages and price changes.)
Notably, the forecast shows a 1.5–2.7% median price decline in the most expensive markets—San Francisco and New York—while mid‑range markets such as Dallas, Houston, and Atlanta will see a smaller dip of roughly 1–1.5%. The overall trend indicates that every major market on the list is likely to experience a modest fall, reflecting a broader shift from the boom conditions of the past two years.
Why Fort Lauderdale and Chicago Stand Out
The WGME article focuses on Fort Lauderdale and Chicago as key examples because these two cities illustrate the diverse drivers behind the expected downturn.
Fort Lauderdale, FL: The city’s real‑estate boom was largely driven by an influx of out‑of‑state buyers during the pandemic, who were attracted by Florida’s no‑state‑tax advantage and the ability to work remotely. However, the market is now saturated with inventory that was built up during the low‑rate period. Realtor.com’s analysis suggests that this oversupply, coupled with rising mortgage rates, will push the median price in Fort Lauderdale down by about $6,800 in 2026.
Chicago, IL: Chicago’s market reflects a more gradual transition. While the city has long been a stable mid‑market hub, the pandemic accelerated demand for suburban properties. The forecast indicates a roughly $7,000 decline in the city’s median price by 2026. Local economic indicators—including a rebound in job growth and a steady supply of new construction—are mitigating a sharper decline, but the overall trend points to a modest adjustment.
How the Pandemic Set the Stage
The WGME article also includes a brief look at how the pandemic reshaped the U.S. housing market. A link to a Realtor.com blog post details the “pandemic‑era surge,” explaining that low mortgage rates (peaking at 3.25% in 2021), supply constraints, and a sudden shift toward remote work created a perfect storm for rising home prices. In 2020 alone, median home prices jumped by an average of 12% across many metropolitan areas, and the market has not fully cooled off.
A secondary link leads to an analysis on the National Association of Realtors’ website, which emphasizes that the pandemic-induced “new normal” of remote work continues to influence buyer preferences—favoring larger homes, outdoor space, and lower density neighborhoods. These factors, combined with construction delays and labor shortages, are now causing inventory to catch up to demand, setting the stage for the predicted price corrections.
What Buyers and Sellers Should Expect
The article concludes with practical take‑aways for both buyers and sellers:
Buyers: If you’re looking to purchase a home in one of the 22 forecasted cities, it may be wise to act sooner rather than later. While the projected declines are modest, they still represent potential savings compared to 2023‑2024 prices. However, interest rates are likely to remain elevated, so securing a mortgage before rates rise further will be crucial.
Sellers: Homeowners in these markets might need to adjust expectations. While the price dip is not as steep as during a full‑blown recession, a 1–2% decline can translate into thousands of dollars. Sellers should consider staging and marketing strategies that highlight features most attractive to buyers in the post‑pandemic era, such as home offices and outdoor living spaces.
Investors: For real‑estate investors, the projected declines could present buying opportunities, especially in markets like Chicago and Fort Lauderdale where price adjustments are more pronounced. Nonetheless, the article cautions that investors should keep an eye on local economic trends, employment rates, and construction activity.
A Broader View: National Trends
The WGME article ties the 22‑city forecast into a larger national narrative. A link to the Realtor.com blog explains that while the overall U.S. housing market is expected to cool, the pace of cooling varies dramatically by region. The Southern and Southwestern metros are anticipated to see smaller declines (1–1.5%) because of continued population growth and job expansion. Conversely, markets with higher median prices—such as the West Coast and major East Coast cities—are projected to experience a sharper dip (2–3%) as demand begins to normalize and supply improves.
Bottom Line
Realtor.com’s 2026 forecast paints a picture of a gradual, yet systematic, adjustment in the U.S. housing market. Across 22 key cities—from the tech‑driven West Coast to the industrial Midwest—median home prices are expected to slip by 1.5% to 2.7%. Fort Lauderdale and Chicago illustrate how local supply dynamics, pandemic‑induced demand shifts, and macroeconomic factors interact to shape these changes. For buyers, sellers, and investors alike, understanding these projections can inform strategy and timing in a market that is still very much in flux.
Read the Full wgme Article at:
[ https://wgme.com/news/nation-world/house-prices-to-decrease-in-2026-in-22-cities-according-to-realtor-com-fort-lauderdale-florida-pandemic-chicago ]
