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Realtor.com Forecasts 2026 Home-Price Declines in 22 Major U.S. Cities

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  Published in House and Home on Wednesday, December 3rd 2025 at 13:01 GMT by Fox 11 News

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Realtor.com Projects Home‑Price Declines in 22 U.S. Cities for 2026 – A Deep‑Dive into the Forecast

A recent Fox 11 Online report (linking to the original article on fox11online.com) highlighted an intriguing forecast from Realtor.com that suggests a shift in the U.S. housing market: house prices are expected to decline in 22 major cities by 2026. The piece draws on Realtor.com’s proprietary data, references a broader discussion about the pandemic’s long‑term impact on real estate, and zeroes in on key markets such as Fort Lauderdale, Florida, and Chicago, Illinois. Below is a concise yet thorough recap of the story, the data behind it, and what it could mean for buyers, sellers, and investors.

The Forecast at a Glance

Realtor.com’s 2026 home‑price outlook is based on the Realtor.com U.S. Home Price Index (HPI)—a monthly measure of the median price of existing homes sold in the United States. The HPI is calculated by taking the median sale price from 1.2 million active listings and comparing it to the same period in the previous year, expressed as a percent change.

According to the article, the HPI is projected to dip by 2–4 % in 2026 across 22 cities that previously experienced robust growth during the pandemic‑era housing boom. The list includes:

1. Phoenix, AZ
2. Austin, TX
3. Dallas, TX
4. San Antonio, TX
5. Houston, TX
6. Orlando, FL
7. Tampa, FL
8. Fort Lauderdale, FL
9. Miami, FL
10. Atlanta, GA
11. Charlotte, NC
12. Nashville, TN
13. Denver, CO
14. Dallas‑Fort Worth, TX (sub‑market)
15. Seattle, WA
16. Portland, OR
17. Salt Lake City, UT
18. Kansas City, MO
19. Indianapolis, IN
20. Chicago, IL
21. Cleveland, OH
22. Cincinnati, OH

The article notes that Fort Lauderdale and Miami are among the hottest markets that are now heading into a “cool‑down.” Conversely, the forecast suggests that smaller‑city markets such as Wichita, KS, and Asheville, NC may see even more modest price movements.

Why 2026? – The Pandemic’s Legacy

The article contextualizes the forecast within the broader backdrop of the COVID‑19 pandemic. In the two years that followed the first wave, low mortgage rates, work‑from‑home arrangements, and an influx of buyers into the housing market spurred record‑high demand. Realtors on the front lines of the market observed a “tight‑inventory, rapid‑sale” cycle that pushed median prices to record highs in many metropolitan areas.

However, as the pandemic’s grip loosens and interest rates rise (the Federal Reserve has been hiking rates to curb inflation), the article quotes a Realtor.com analyst saying that “the supply–demand imbalance is likely to narrow.” The analyst further notes that the “price elasticity” of buyers has increased; buyers are now more sensitive to price changes.” These dynamics are what are expected to produce a slight but meaningful price correction in 2026.

Key Points From the Report

• Median Price Drop: The projected decline is modest, ranging from 2 % (e.g., in Austin) to 4 % (e.g., in Phoenix). While small in relative terms, a 4 % drop translates to hundreds of thousands of dollars in markets where median prices hover above $500,000.

• Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates mean higher mortgage payments, which can dampen demand. The article highlights that in cities where median mortgage rates have risen above 4 %, sellers may face a more competitive landscape.

• Inventory Levels: While inventory remains tight in many metros, the report indicates that a slight increase in supply is anticipated by 2026, particularly in high‑growth areas such as Dallas‑Fort Worth and Fort Lauderdale.

• Regional Differences: The article makes a point of distinguishing between “high‑cost” markets (e.g., San Francisco, New York) that aren’t included in the 22-city list and the “mid‑cost” metros that are. It suggests that the latter are more likely to experience price corrections because they are less insulated by high property taxes or limited land supply.

• Economic Growth Factors: The forecast takes into account broader economic indicators such as GDP growth, employment rates, and consumer confidence, all of which are factored into Realtor.com’s modeling algorithm.

What Does This Mean for Buyers and Sellers?

• For Buyers: A price dip, even if modest, can open up a window for negotiation. The article advises prospective buyers to keep an eye on “seller‑favorable” conditions—such as homes that have been on the market for over 60 days—or to consider purchasing in the latter half of 2026 when price correction may be more pronounced.

• For Sellers: If you’re in one of the 22 forecasted cities, the article suggests pricing your home aggressively to stay competitive. However, sellers should also be prepared to negotiate more frequently as buyers become more price‑conscious.

• For Investors: Real estate investors looking for long‑term appreciation may find that a slight dip provides a “buy‑low, sell‑high” opportunity. The article encourages investors to stay diversified across markets, as some cities may hold steady while others see declines.

Additional Context From Follow‑Up Links

The Fox 11 article linked to a number of resources that helped flesh out the story:

• Realtor.com Home Price Index – a live dashboard that lets users see current and historical price trends in any U.S. city. This link helped confirm that the 22‑city list is consistent with the most recent HPI data.

• Fort Lauderdale Real‑Estate Market Report – a dedicated page on Realtor.com detailing median home prices, inventory, and sale‑speed in the South Florida market. It corroborated the forecast that the area will see a slight price decline.

• Chicago Housing Market Overview – a comprehensive market snapshot that explained why Chicago is included in the list: the city’s moderate price growth, coupled with a relatively higher inventory of homes for sale compared to the national average.

• Realtor.com Blog Post on Pandemic‑Era Market Dynamics – provided background on how the pandemic reshaped buyer behavior, work‑from‑home policies, and lending standards.

These follow‑up links enriched the narrative by offering data‑driven explanations of why the 22 cities were singled out and what the underlying factors are that will drive a potential price correction.

Bottom Line

Realtor.com’s forecast that home prices will dip in 22 U.S. cities by 2026 offers a nuanced view of the post‑pandemic housing market. While the decline is expected to be modest, it is a signal that buyers might soon find more favorable purchase terms, and sellers will need to remain proactive in a market that’s gradually rebalancing.

For anyone watching the market—whether a first‑time homebuyer in Fort Lauderdale, a seasoned investor in Chicago, or a homeowner in Phoenix—staying informed with up‑to‑date HPI data, monitoring interest‑rate trends, and watching local inventory levels will be crucial steps in navigating the next few years of real‑estate dynamics.