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September Home-Price Index Sees Strongest Monthly Gain in 13 Months

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  Published in House and Home on Tuesday, November 25th 2025 at 12:21 GMT by HousingWire

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September Home‑Price Index: A Snapshot of the Market’s Momentum

HousingWire’s latest monthly briefing on the September Home‑Price Index pulls together the most recent readings from the two primary gauges of U.S. housing price movements: the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) Home‑Price Index and the S&P CoreLogic Case‑Shiller Home‑Price Index. The report is a quick‑look digest that tracks the market’s short‑term trajectory while situating it in a longer‑term context. Below, I break down the key findings, explain how the data is compiled, and highlight the broader implications for homeowners, buyers, and policymakers.

1. The Core Numbers

The FHFA index rose 0.5 % on a month‑over‑month basis, its highest single‑month gain in 12 months. The S&P CoreLogic Case‑Shiller composite followed suit, with a 0.6 % lift. Year‑over‑year, all three measures surpassed the 1 % threshold— the first time that the national index has done so in nearly two years.

HousingWire’s article notes that the 0.5 % bump in the FHFA index represents the strongest monthly gain in 13 months and that the national price trajectory is now “continuing its upward trend from the previous two quarters.”

2. How the Data Are Calculated

• FHFA Index – Derived from repeat‑sale data for a pool of ~3.4 million homes, the FHFA index captures price changes for homes that have been sold at least twice. Because the dataset is weighted by transaction volume, it emphasizes markets where liquidity is high (e.g., New York, Los Angeles, Dallas). The index is seasonally adjusted and released with a one‑month lag.

• S&P CoreLogic Case‑Shiller – This composite is built on a 20‑market panel (including New York, Los Angeles, Dallas, Seattle, Miami, and others) and is calculated using a “hedonic” price‑indexing approach. It measures price changes for repeat sales, adjusting for home‑level characteristics (size, lot, age, etc.) and compiles a “All‑U.S.” index that covers the entire country.

The article links directly to the data sources: the FHFA Home‑Price Index data page (https://www.fhfa.gov/Research/Studies/Pages/HPIndex.aspx) and the S&P CoreLogic Case‑Shiller Home‑Price Index page (https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/major-indices/corelogic-case-shiller-home-price-index/).

3. Market‑by‑Market Performance

While the national composite tells a broad story, the article highlights that price gains are uneven across the country:

• High‑Growth Regions – The Midwest and South saw the most robust price momentum, with Texas, Oklahoma, and Kentucky markets posting 1–2 % YoY gains. The “core” 20‑market composite mirrors this trend, indicating that many of the index’s high‑volume markets are still rising faster than the broader economy.

• Western Lag – West Coast markets (California, Washington, Oregon) lagged behind in monthly growth, with September gains hovering around 0.2–0.3 %. The article notes that these markets are already “running near capacity” in terms of housing supply, contributing to the muted monthly uptick.

• Top 5 Gains – Charlotte, Dallas, Phoenix, Nashville, and Miami topped the list of cities with the highest monthly price increases, with each reporting gains in the 0.8–1.0 % range.

4. Contextualizing the Surge

The article stresses that while the September uptick is solid, it still sits below the “five‑year average” for the FHFA index (which has hovered around 0.8 % monthly). In other words, even though prices are climbing, the pace has decelerated relative to the 2022 boom.

HousingWire’s narrative highlights that the uptick coincides with a period of relative stability in mortgage rates. The Federal Reserve’s policy stance has kept rates hovering near 6 % for the first time in over a decade, and the article notes that “higher rates have tempered buyer demand but have not halted price momentum.”

The report references the Mortgage Bankers Association’s mortgage‑rate forecast data (link to the MBA website) to underscore how rate expectations are influencing the housing market.

5. Implications for Stakeholders

• Buyers – The continued rise in prices, even in the face of elevated rates, suggests that supply constraints remain a key driver. The article warns that prospective buyers may need to adjust expectations for price appreciation if rates continue to climb.

• Homeowners – Those who purchased in 2020 or 2021 may see substantial equity gains. The FHFA index’s YoY increase of 1.9 % translates to roughly $18,000 in added value per $500,000 property, on average.

• Policymakers – The data provide a benchmark for assessing the efficacy of supply‑side interventions (e.g., zoning reforms, public‑private partnerships). HousingWire notes that the housing‑price data will feed into the FHFA’s upcoming quarterly report, which includes policy recommendations.

6. What Comes Next

The article concludes by previewing the next month’s data release. Analysts expect September’s gains to hold, though the pace may dip slightly as mortgage rates inch up again. The FHFA index will publish its October data in early November, while the Case‑Shiller composite will release its update in mid‑November.

Bottom Line

September’s home‑price numbers confirm that the market is still on an upward trajectory, but the growth rate is easing. The FHFA and Case‑Shiller indices both demonstrate solid month‑over‑month gains and healthy year‑over‑year gains, yet the pace has slowed compared to the 2022 peak. For buyers and sellers alike, the key takeaway is that supply constraints continue to outpace demand, sustaining price pressure even in a higher‑rate environment. As the season’s data cycle winds down, stakeholders will keep a close eye on the next release to gauge whether the market will accelerate, plateau, or begin to correct.