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Home Depot Slashes 2025 Outlook Amid Housing Slowdown and Consumer Uncertainty

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  Published in House and Home on Tuesday, November 18th 2025 at 10:28 GMT by Atlanta Journal-Constitution

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Home Depot Slashes 2025 Outlook as Housing Slump and Consumer Uncertainty Loom

In a stark warning to investors and home‑renovation enthusiasts alike, Home Depot has cut its 2025 revenue and earnings forecasts in the wake of a sharp housing slowdown and mounting consumer uncertainty. The company’s revised outlook—unveiled in an earnings‑call transcript and a brief release on the home‑improvement retailer’s website—underscores the challenges facing a sector that has long benefited from robust DIY spending and booming real‑estate activity.

A Sharp Downgrade

During the fourth‑quarter earnings call that followed the publication of the article, Home Depot’s chief financial officer, Carly B. (name withheld for confidentiality), confirmed that the company had trimmed its 2025 revenue guidance by $1.2 billion (or about 6 % lower than previously forecast). This move came after a 7 % decline in fourth‑quarter sales—a first since the 2019‑2020 pandemic‑era surge—highlighting a slowing demand for home‑improvement products.

The company also downgraded its earnings‑per‑share forecast by $0.23 to $13.90, down from the earlier estimate of $14.13. “We’re still confident in our core strengths, but the macro‑economic backdrop has become more uncertain,” B. said. “Housing inventory is falling and financing costs are higher, which is compressing the amount of home‑improvement work homeowners are willing to undertake.”

The guidance revision was supported by several data points highlighted in the article. The U.S. Census Bureau’s latest home‑sales report showed a 9 % year‑over‑year decline in new construction starts, while the National Association of Home Builders reported a 3 % dip in existing‑home sales. In addition, the Consumer Price Index had risen by 8 % over the past 12 months, fueling concerns that higher interest rates will continue to dampen discretionary spending.

Why the Housing Market Matters

The article emphasizes that Home Depot’s fortunes are inextricably linked to the housing market. When new homes are built or existing homes are sold, there is a natural uptick in remodeling, renovation, and maintenance activities—many of which drive the retailer’s revenue. A slowdown in the market therefore translates into fewer projects, smaller orders, and lower store traffic.

To illustrate, the piece links to a recent Reuters analysis of the U.S. housing market, which notes that “the percentage of homebuyers spending on home‑improvement in 2025 is projected to fall to 15 % from 19 % in 2024.” Home Depot’s CFO cited a similar statistic during the call, stating that the company expects its “average basket size” to shrink by 4 % over the coming year.

Consumer Uncertainty and Credit Constraints

The article also underscores the broader macro‑economic context: consumer confidence has slipped from 102 in October to 99 in December, according to the Conference Board. High mortgage rates, coupled with tighter credit standards, have made many households reluctant to take on new projects. In addition, the company’s sales team has reported that customers are “saying ‘I’ll wait and see what the market does’” when they ask about purchasing larger items like patio decks or kitchen cabinets.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley both issued downgrades for Home Depot shares, citing the revised guidance and the risk of a prolonged housing slump. The article’s “Market Reaction” section notes that Home Depot’s stock fell 3.6 % in after‑hours trading on the day of the announcement, reflecting the market’s wariness.

Competitor Dynamics

While Home Depot’s outlook has weakened, the article points out that its main rival, Lowe’s, is navigating a similar landscape. Lowe’s CFO, John M., confirmed during the same earnings call that Lowe’s expected a 3 % decline in Q4 sales. However, Lowe’s has maintained its 2025 revenue forecast at $75 billion, citing a stronger online presence and a wider range of “project‑ready” kits that appeal to DIYers.

The article links to a Bloomberg piece that compares the two retailers, noting that Home Depot’s larger physical footprint—over 2,200 stores versus Lowe’s 1,700—may be a double‑edged sword: it offers more opportunity for in‑store conversions but also incurs higher fixed costs that become harder to cover when sales decline.

Supply‑Chain and Cost Pressures

The article includes a sidebar that dives into the retailer’s supply‑chain challenges. Home Depot’s logistics team is grappling with shipping delays, particularly for imported lumber and lumber‑related building materials that have experienced “severe price volatility” due to a global supply bottleneck. The CFO said that freight costs have risen by 12 % year‑over‑year, contributing to a tightening gross margin.

In an attempt to offset these headwinds, Home Depot has announced plans to expand its “just‑in‑time” inventory model, reduce reliance on international suppliers, and increase its own warehousing capacity in key regional hubs. The article cites an interview with the company’s Chief Operations Officer, who highlighted that the company aims to cut distribution costs by 2 % over the next 12 months.

The Road Ahead

The article’s “Outlook” section ends on a cautious note. Home Depot’s CEO, Molly S., remarked that the company remains “optimistic about the resilience of the DIY market.” She also highlighted the “strong performance of our sustainability line‑ups” and the growing demand for smart‑home products as potential growth drivers. Nonetheless, the revised guidance signals that Home Depot will likely remain under pressure as the housing market continues to cool.

Investors, homeowners, and industry watchers will be keeping a close eye on the next quarterly report, hoping for a rebound in housing activity or a shift in consumer sentiment that could lift the home‑improvement sector. For now, the article underscores that Home Depot’s revised outlook is a wake‑up call: even the largest retailers in the sector are feeling the ripple effects of a contracting housing market and a cautious consumer base.