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  Published in House and Home on Fri, Sep 9th, 2025 by The Globe and Mail

Canadian Housing Market on a Tightrope: Prices, Rates, and Policy in Focus

By a Research Journalist – September 26, 2024

On the 26th of September, The Globe and Mail published a comprehensive “Real‑Estate & Housing News” roundup that captured a moment of both caution and opportunity in Canada’s property market. The article, which stitched together data, expert commentary, and government action plans, offered a panoramic view of how rising interest rates, shrinking inventories, and policy tweaks are shaping the market across the country. Below is a synthesis of the main points, enriched by the ancillary links that the piece directed readers toward for deeper dives.

1. Mortgage Rates Are Rising, But Still Reasonably Low

• Rate Environment: The Bank of Canada’s policy rate remains at 5.25 %, a 0.25‑percentage‑point hike that was mirrored in the first‑time home‑buyer rate for a 5‑year fixed mortgage. Mortgage brokers in Toronto reported a 3‑month average rate of 5.70 %, up from 5.45 % last month.
• Impact on Affordability: The article highlighted that the 10‑year average of 5.4 % keeps the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) “affordability index” at a level where 30‑year mortgages still allow 28‑30 % of the purchase price to be covered by monthly payments for most Canadians.
• Link to CMHC Report: Readers were directed to the CMHC’s latest market outlook, which offers a more granular breakdown of mortgage rate expectations for the coming quarter.

2. Home Sales Dip, But Regional Variances Persist

• National Trends: In the latest quarter, Canadian home sales fell 8.3 % year‑over‑year, marking the first decline in three consecutive quarters.
• Regional Highlights:
  • Toronto: Sales slid 7 %, but the average price of $1.1 million remained unchanged, suggesting a plateau rather than a drop.
  • Vancouver: Prices fell 4.2 %, but sales volume increased by 2 % as new listings outpaced buyer demand.
  • Calgary: Sales saw the sharpest decline at 12 %, linked to a spike in rental vacancies and a slowdown in oil‑related economic activity.
• Link to Realtor.ca Data: The article’s footnotes linked to Realtor.ca’s regional market dashboards, providing interactive charts of monthly sales trends.

3. Inventory Levels Remain Historically Low

• Short‑Supply Crisis: According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), the national inventory of homes for sale has been at a 14‑month low, a figure that falls far short of the 4‑month supply benchmark that is generally considered “balanced.”
• Consequence for Buyers: The scarcity has driven bidding wars in major cities, with a 20‑per‑cent increase in “multiple offer” listings in Toronto.
• Link to Toronto Real‑Estate Association (TRE) Report: The article cited the TRE’s monthly report that breaks down inventory by price bracket and neighbourhood.

4. Policy Interventions: A Mix of Relief and Regulation

• Mortgage Stress Test Revisions: The federal government announced a relaxation of the 4‑year “stress test” requirement for certain low‑income households, potentially allowing an additional 150,000 mortgages to qualify this year.
• Provincial Measures:
  • Ontario: The provincial government introduced a “Home‑Ownership Strategy” that includes a 5‑year tax credit for first‑time buyers who purchase properties priced under $500,000.
  • Quebec: The government rolled out a new “Affordable Housing Initiative” that earmarks $200 million for construction of mixed‑income units in Montreal’s inner suburbs.
• Link to Government Press Release: A link to the federal Housing Canada website gave details on the new stress‑test criteria and eligibility parameters.

5. Investor Activity and the Rise of REITs

• Corporate Buying Surge: Several large real‑estate investment trusts (REITs) saw a surge in acquisitions, particularly in the commercial‑office sector, as office vacancies climbed to 25 %.
• REIT Outlook: The article referenced an analysis by The Globe and Mail’s own real‑estate team that projects a 4 % increase in REIT revenues over the next year, driven by higher rents in high‑traffic downtown cores.
• Link to REIT Performance Data: Readers were directed to the S&P/TSX REIT index page for current performance metrics and earnings forecasts.

6. The Long‑Term Picture: Supply, Demand, and Affordability

• Housing Supply Pipeline: The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s “Housing Supply Outlook” forecasts that construction activity will need to rise by 5 % annually for the next five years to meet demand and bring inventories back to a balanced level.
• Affordability Index: The CMHC’s index has slipped from 42 (last year) to 38, signaling that while mortgage rates remain manageable, the combination of high home prices and a weak labour market has eroded affordability for the middle class.
• Link to CMHC Housing Policy Forum: The article linked to a recent CMHC forum where policymakers discussed measures to increase supply, including loosening zoning restrictions in suburban growth centres.

Takeaway

The Globe and Mail article paints a complex portrait: mortgage rates are rising but not at the scale that would cause a market crash; home sales are easing, especially in hard‑pressed regions; inventory remains at a record low; and government policies are attempting to balance relief for buyers with the need to manage long‑term housing affordability. The narrative is that Canada’s housing market is on a tightrope—balancing between the fiscal prudence of the Bank of Canada and the urgent supply needs of a growing population.

For those looking to dig deeper, the piece provides a host of links—CMHC reports, provincial policy documents, and real‑estate data dashboards—that allow readers to explore specific metrics, regional variations, and policy implications in detail. The article’s balanced blend of data, commentary, and actionable resources makes it an indispensable snapshot of Canada’s housing landscape as of September 26, 2024.