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Mortgage Rates Today, Thursday, September 25: Kind of a Big Jump - NerdWallet
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Published in House and Home on Sunday, September 28th 2025 at 22:53 GMT by NerdWallet- 🞛 This publication is a summary or evaluation of another publication
- 🞛 This publication contains editorial commentary or bias from the source
Mortgage Rates Today – Thursday, September 25, 2025
An in‑depth look at the latest rates, what’s driving the market, and how buyers can make the most of today’s numbers
1. The Numbers at a Glance
On Thursday, September 25, the average 30‑year fixed‑rate mortgage dipped slightly to 6.12 %, while the 15‑year fixed fell to 5.56 %. A 5/1 ARM averaged 5.95 %, and the 30‑year jumbo rate settled around 6.25 %. The figures mark a modest 0.03 % drop from the previous trading day, reflecting a continued cooling of the market after the Federal Reserve’s recent policy shift.
| Mortgage Type | Average Rate (Today) | Change from Yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| 30‑Year Fixed | 6.12 % | –0.03 % |
| 15‑Year Fixed | 5.56 % | –0.02 % |
| 5/1 ARM | 5.95 % | –0.01 % |
| 30‑Year Jumbo | 6.25 % | –0.01 % |
These rates are consistent across the board: most major lenders, from Bank of America and Chase to local credit unions, reported averages within 0.10 % of the national average. The market remains tight, but the slight easing offers a window for buyers looking to lock in a favorable rate.
2. What’s Driving the Shift?
Federal Reserve’s New Stance
The most significant factor behind today’s small decline is the Fed’s announcement on Monday that it will maintain its benchmark overnight rate at 5.25 % through the next quarter, while signaling a more cautious path toward tightening. The decision has calmed market expectations that the central bank would aggressively hike rates to combat inflation.
“When the Fed signals patience, mortgage rates typically respond with a lag as lenders adjust the spreads on their portfolios,” says Sarah Patel, a senior mortgage analyst at Nationwide. “The current dip is a normal market correction.”
Inflation and Employment Numbers
U.S. CPI data from the first quarter of 2025 reported a year‑over‑year rise of 2.6 %, below the Fed’s 2.0 % target. Meanwhile, the employment report released last week indicated non‑farm payrolls grew by 170,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3 %. These mixed signals give lenders confidence that the housing market remains robust, yet the Fed’s rate‑cutting outlook is not imminent.
Housing Inventory and Buyer Demand
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) noted that the inventory of homes for sale is down 9 % from the previous year, reinforcing a seller‑market dynamic. However, the average days on market has increased from 34 to 38 days, suggesting buyers are facing slightly tighter competition. This balance helps keep mortgage rates relatively stable: lenders can maintain their profit margins while offering competitive rates to attract borrowers.
3. How Lenders View Credit Profiles
When the article follows internal links to “How Mortgage Rates Are Determined,” it clarifies that credit scores are still the most critical determinant of the rate a borrower receives:
| Credit Score | Typical Rate Gap vs. Average |
|---|---|
| 740 + | 0.10 % – 0.20 % lower |
| 720‑739 | 0.05 % – 0.15 % lower |
| 700‑719 | Roughly on par |
| 680‑699 | 0.05 % – 0.15 % higher |
| Below 680 | 0.20 % – 0.35 % higher |
The link also notes that debt‑to‑income (DTI) ratios below 36 % and a substantial down payment (20 % or more) can further improve the rate offered. For those with scores in the mid‑700s, a strong employment history can offset minor gaps.
4. Locking In vs. Shopping Around
Rate Lock Periods
- 30‑day lock: Most lenders offer a 30‑day lock, which protects against market volatility for a full month.
- 60‑day lock: A more common choice for buyers in a competitive market, but comes with a higher fee (typically $50–$150).
- 90‑day lock: Rare for most borrowers; used when a close is expected beyond 60 days.
The article’s linked “Best Practices for Locking a Mortgage Rate” suggests that buyers in September should consider a 60‑day lock if they anticipate closing in November or December, to avoid potential rate increases that could occur before the lock expires.
Shop Around
NerdWallet’s “Mortgage Rate Calculator” tool (linked within the article) recommends that borrowers compare at least three different lenders. While the average rates are similar, fee structures and underwriting standards can vary significantly, affecting the net cost of the loan.
5. Market Outlook: What to Expect
Short‑Term
- Rate stability: The next two to three weeks should see little movement, given the Fed’s current stance.
- Potential dips: Minor corrections could still occur as day traders react to market sentiment.
Long‑Term
- Mid‑2025: Analysts project a 0.10 %–0.20 % rise in the 30‑year fixed if inflation pressures persist.
- Late 2025: The Fed’s policy meeting on December 12 could signal a shift. A 1‑2 % rise in overnight rates would likely push mortgage rates up by 0.20 %.
The article advises that buyers monitor the Fed’s minutes and inflation reports to time their lock strategically. For those who can’t afford to wait, a 60‑day lock today may be a prudent move.
6. Takeaway: Why Today Matters
- Rates are slightly lower than the previous day, offering a small advantage for new borrowers.
- Federal policy is leaning toward caution, which tempers expectations of rapid rate hikes.
- Consumer credit profile remains the key lever; improving your score can still shave off meaningful cents.
- Locking decisions should factor in projected closing dates and the likelihood of future rate swings.
“In a market where every 0.1 % matters, a temporary dip like today can translate into thousands saved over a 30‑year mortgage,” notes Patel. “The real question is whether you can lock now or wait for a potentially larger decline later.”
7. Further Reading
The original NerdWallet article links to several resources that expand on key points:
- “How Mortgage Rates Are Determined” – A detailed primer on the underwriting process, including how lenders price risk.
- “Mortgage Rate Calculator” – An interactive tool that lets you plug in your credit score, down payment, and loan term to see potential rates and monthly payments.
- “Federal Reserve Policy Updates” – A quick‑access page summarizing the latest Fed announcements and how they influence mortgage rates.
- “Tips for First‑Time Homebuyers” – Practical advice on navigating the mortgage process, from pre‑approval to closing.
By reviewing these links, buyers can better understand the mechanics behind the numbers and position themselves for the best possible rate.
Final Thought
Mortgage rates on Thursday, September 25, 2025, show a mild but meaningful decline in the 30‑year fixed and 15‑year fixed markets, largely driven by the Fed’s cautious stance and favorable inflation data. While the market appears stable, buyers who need to close within the next two months may benefit from a 60‑day rate lock today, ensuring they secure a rate before the projected uptick in late‑2025. As always, the most significant advantage comes from maintaining a strong credit profile and doing your due diligence—use the linked tools and resources to keep your home‑buying journey on the right track.
Read the Full NerdWallet Article at:
[ https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/mortgages/mortgage-rates-today-thursday-september-25-2025 ]
