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The 'best time' to buy a home is right around the corner. Here's what you need to know | Fortune

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  Published in House and Home on Sunday, September 21st 2025 at 9:18 GMT by Fortune
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When Is the Smartest Moment to Buy a Home in 2025? Insights From Realtor.com

September 21, 2025 – Fortune

The real‑estate calendar is a complex dance of seasonal swings, economic forces, and buyer psychology. For most Americans, the question isn’t whether they should buy a house—most are in the market—but when the market will favor them. A new article on Fortune, drawing on data and expert commentary from Realtor.com, attempts to answer that question for the current year. The piece distills a decade’s worth of housing trends, mortgage‑rate forecasts, and regional nuances into a practical guide for prospective homeowners.

1. The Current Landscape: A “Buying Season” in the Midst of Uncertainty

Realtor.com’s “Best Time to Buy a House in 2025” feature kicks off by highlighting a key trend: inventory is still tight, and prices have continued to climb into the fourth quarter of 2024. According to the platform’s proprietary Market Heat Index, the national median home price hit $475,000 in August 2024, up 7.1 % from the same month the previous year. Meanwhile, the average 30‑year fixed‑rate mortgage rate hovered around 7.2 %, a level that has not been seen since the 2008 crisis.

The article points out that “inventory levels are projected to stay below the 2020‑peak, which historically has been a strong indicator of buyer advantage.” In other words, fewer homes on the market means sellers often have more bargaining power, but it also signals that homes are likely to stay on the market for longer, allowing buyers a chance to negotiate. The writer cites a Realtor.com data analyst who notes that homes typically stay on the market for 48 days this year—almost 20 % longer than the 2022 average.

2. Seasonal Signals: Why Late Winter Might Be the Sweet Spot

A common real‑estate myth is that buying in the “spring rush” guarantees you’ll secure the best deal. The Fortune piece counters that with statistical evidence: “From 2010 to 2024, buyers who made offers in November through February consistently paid 3.5 % less on median‑priced homes than those who bought during the peak of spring and summer.”

Realtor.com’s Seasonal Pricing Model shows that homes listed in late fall and early winter experience a slower price appreciation curve, often allowing buyers to lock in a lower price before the annual spike that typically follows. The article suggests that buyers who can pre‑qualify for a mortgage before the winter season will have a stronger footing to negotiate, especially as sellers are more inclined to accept lower offers when inventory is high.

3. Mortgage‑Rate Forecasts: The Big Uncertainty Factor

Mortgage rates remain the biggest variable in any home‑buying decision. The article pulls in data from the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey and the Federal Reserve’s own projections, which suggest a modest decline in rates by mid‑2025. Freddie Mac’s latest forecast projects rates slipping to 6.5 % by June 2025, a drop that would translate into a $1,200 monthly savings on a $400,000 mortgage with a 30‑year amortization.

Realtor.com’s analysis also highlights a “Rate‑Lock Window” of 30 days: “If you lock in a rate before the end of September, you may be protected from the projected rate rise that’s expected in the first half of 2026.” The article emphasizes that rate lock policies vary by lender, and that buyers should consult their mortgage broker about the most favorable terms.

4. Regional Variations: Where the Market Is Different

The article wisely recognizes that national averages can mask regional realities. It links to Realtor.com’s Regional Market Report, which shows that:

• The Southwest (Arizona, Nevada, Texas) remains one of the hottest markets, with inventory at a 10‑year low and median prices up 12 % year‑on‑year.
• The Northeast (New York, Boston) is experiencing a slight cooling, with a 3 % drop in new listings and a modest 1.5 % decline in median prices.
• The Midwest (Ohio, Indiana, Michigan) shows the highest affordability index, with median prices under $300,000 and a growing supply of fixer‑ups.

The article stresses that buyers in “hot” markets should consider expanding their search radius or exploring “new‑home” developments, which often come with incentives such as closing‑cost assistance.

5. Practical Tips From the Article

Beyond macro‑level analysis, the Fortune piece offers actionable advice for prospective homeowners:

The article links to Realtor.com’s “Home‑Buying Checklist” (https://realtor.com/home-buying-checklist) and “Mortgage Calculator” (https://realtor.com/mortgage-calculator) for readers who want to dig deeper into their numbers.

6. Bottom Line: Buy Now or Wait?

Realtor.com’s analysis does not give a definitive “buy or not” answer—there is no one‑size‑fits‑all. The key takeaway is that the current market is still more favorable for buyers than it was during the 2023‑2024 rate surge. However, rates are expected to climb slightly in 2026, so buyers who can lock in a rate today stand to gain a substantial advantage.

For those who are finishing school, starting a new job, or simply looking for a home in a specific neighborhood, the article recommends beginning the home‑search process immediately—especially if you can secure a mortgage pre‑approval. Conversely, if your financial situation is still in flux or if you’re in a region that’s seeing a price drop, you might want to wait until the second half of 2025 when forecasts predict a small cooling trend.

7. Sources and Further Reading

The article pulls from a mix of primary data sources and expert commentary:

• Realtor.com Market Heat Index (https://realtor.com/market-heat-index)
• Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms)
• Federal Reserve Economic Data – Mortgage Rates (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE)
• Realtor.com Regional Market Report (https://realtor.com/regional-market-report)

Readers interested in deeper dives can also explore the linked “Realtor.com Home‑Buying Checklist” and the “Mortgage Calculator” tools to personalize their purchasing strategy.

In sum, the Fortune article underscores that the “best” time to buy a home in 2025 hinges on individual readiness, regional market dynamics, and the ability to lock in mortgage rates before they climb again. For most, the window is already open—but for those who prefer to play the long game, a cautious approach through the rest of the year may pay off.