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Home prices are still rising, but June numbers mark 'a decisive shift' in the housing market

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Home Prices Keep Climbing, but June’s Data Signals a Turning Point in the Housing Market

In the latest round of housing‑market data, the U.S. is still on a rising trajectory, but the figures released for June reveal a decisive shift in the dynamics that have defined the market for the past 18 months. The story, chronicled in HousingWire’s recent feature “Home prices are still rising but June numbers mark a decisive shift in the housing market,” argues that the sellers’ advantage is beginning to wane, a change that could herald a more balanced playing field for buyers in the months to come.


A Climb That Is Slowing

The cornerstone of the article is the S&P/Case‑Shiller Home Price Index, which tracks the price evolution of single‑family homes across 20 major U.S. metropolitan regions. June’s data showed a 1.3 % month‑over‑month rise—down from the 2.6 % surge in May and the 3.0 % spike seen in March. Although the index remains on an upward trend, the deceleration is significant enough to prompt analysts to rethink the narrative of an unbroken seller’s market.

The article also highlights the broader “National Housing Market Index,” a composite of sale prices, inventory levels, and price‑to‑income ratios. While the index still points to a 4.5 % annual gain in home values, the growth rate is the lowest since early 2019. In other words, the “price‑pressure” that has kept sellers in the hot seat is gradually easing.

What’s Driving the Shift?

1. Mortgage‑Rate Volatility

HousingWire’s piece points out that mortgage rates have become more volatile. Although the average 30‑year fixed‑rate is still hovering around 6.4 %—roughly 1.5 % above the 2018‑low of 4.9 %—the recent uptick is attributed to the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle and expectations of future inflation. As borrowing costs rise, some potential buyers are stepping back, reducing the competitive bidding wars that once drove prices higher.

2. Inventory Tightness, but With a Twist

The article notes that housing inventory remains at a 3‑month supply—lower than the 6‑month buffer that would indicate a balanced market—but it has begun to creep up in certain regions. In the Midwest, for example, the inventory level has risen to 3.3 months, reflecting a slight increase in new listings. This trend is echoed in the national MLS database, where the average days‑on‑market have risen from 23 in May to 27 in June. While inventory levels still don’t match the pre‑pandemic baseline, the incremental growth is a sign that the supply constraints are starting to ease.

3. Regional Variations

The article draws attention to how the shift is not uniform across the country. In California and the Northeast—where housing prices are already at record highs—price growth slowed the most, dropping 1.8 % in June. In contrast, the Southeast and parts of the Midwest saw a modest 0.9 % increase. These regional disparities underscore that local market fundamentals (like job growth, population inflows, and zoning regulations) still dominate price movements.

4. The Role of Affordability

Affordability, a recurring theme in the article, remains a core concern. While the median single‑family home price rose to $345,000 in June—up 5.8 % year‑over‑year—the median household income only grew by 2.2 %. The resulting price‑to‑income ratio remains at 5.5, far above the 3.5 threshold that economists consider affordable. The article cites the National Association of Realtors (NAR), which warns that the current affordability gap may force first‑time buyers to reconsider their expectations, thereby cooling demand.

Market Sentiment: From Sellers’ Supremacy to a More Balanced Field

HousingWire’s feature argues that the June numbers are the tipping point that could shift market sentiment. The narrative of a “hot sellers’ market” has been a dominant story for the past 18 months, fueled by a confluence of low mortgage rates, high demand, and low supply. The new data suggests that the buyers’ war chest is beginning to tighten. With rates poised to climb, and inventory slowly expanding, the balance is expected to tilt toward a more competitive environment.

The article quotes a senior analyst from HousingWire’s research team who notes: “We’re seeing the first signs that buyers will regain some leverage. If mortgage rates continue to rise or stay elevated, we could see bidding wars thin out, giving sellers a chance to negotiate price more effectively.”

Implications for Homeowners and Prospective Buyers

  • Homeowners: Those who have recently sold or are considering selling should note that while the market is still warm, the pace of price appreciation may moderate. They should factor in potential price ceilings when budgeting for new purchases.

  • Buyers: The article suggests that buyers may soon find more favorable terms, such as lower down‑payment requirements and the ability to negotiate closing costs. However, they must still be prepared for the possibility that rising rates could offset the gains from a more balanced market.

  • Investors: The slowing growth may dampen rental yields, but it could also open opportunities for long‑term appreciation if the inventory continues to expand.

Looking Ahead

HousingWire’s article concludes with a cautious optimism. While June’s numbers point to a “decisive shift,” the overall trajectory of the housing market remains upward. The key variables—mortgage rates, inventory, and affordability—will dictate the speed and extent of this transition. For now, the market seems poised at a juncture where buyers and sellers may negotiate more evenly, and the narrative of a purely sellers’ market will likely evolve into a more balanced, and potentially more sustainable, housing ecosystem.

In sum, the HousingWire feature captures the nuanced reality that home prices are still climbing, but the rate of ascent is slowing, and the housing market is at the cusp of a critical transition that could reshape the landscape for all stakeholders involved.


Read the Full HousingWire Article at:
[ https://www.housingwire.com/articles/home-prices-are-still-rising-but-june-numbers-mark-a-decisive-shift-in-the-housing-market/ ]