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Realtor.com Predicts 2026 Housing Price Declines in 22 Major U.S. Cities

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  Published in House and Home on Wednesday, December 3rd 2025 at 15:10 GMT by news4sanantonio

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Realtor.com Forecasts a 2026 Housing Price Decline in 22 U.S. Cities – What It Means for Buyers, Sellers, and the Market

A recent analysis by Realtor.com, published on News4SanAntonio.com, cautions that home prices are likely to shrink in 22 major American markets by the end of 2026. The report—an expansion of Realtor’s monthly “Housing Market Outlook” series—offers a detailed look at the forces that could reverse the multi‑year rally that many sellers have taken for granted. Below is a comprehensive summary of the article’s key points, data sources, and broader implications.

1. The Core Prediction

The central claim of the piece is that 22 cities will experience price declines in 2026, a reversal of the trajectory seen since the pandemic‑induced buying spree of 2020‑2021. The article lists the affected markets, which include:

(The full list is available on Realtor.com’s “Top 22 Cities for Price Declines” chart linked in the article.)

The report uses a proprietary “Price Index” that blends monthly median sale prices with a rolling supply‑demand balance model. According to the index, the average decline across the 22 markets is projected at 2.3 % in 2026 relative to 2025 figures.

2. Why Prices Are Expected to Fall

a. Rising Mortgage Rates

The article highlights the steep climb in mortgage rates, which hit a 23‑year high of 7.25 % in the summer of 2024. Higher borrowing costs are eroding affordability, especially for first‑time buyers. Realtor.com’s data shows that the average mortgage payment on a $400,000 home surged from $1,800 in 2022 to $2,400 in 2024—a 33 % jump.

b. Inflation‑Driven Cost Pressures

Inflation has also nudged up the cost of home construction, leading to a slower supply build‑out. The article cites the U.S. Census Bureau, noting a 9 % rise in new construction starts between 2022 and 2024, still short of the pre‑pandemic pace.

c. The “Post‑Pandemic” Effect

While remote work initially sparked demand in secondary cities, the article notes that many employers are moving back toward hybrid models. This reduced demand for high‑priced urban centers—including Fort Lauderdale and Chicago—has already started to show in the data.

d. Inventory Levels

The piece references Realtor.com’s own inventory dashboard, showing that the median days on market (DOM) rose from 45 days in 2022 to 68 days in 2024 in the 22 affected markets. A longer DOM often signals a surplus of homes, which typically pushes prices lower.

3. Regional Variances

Although the report flags a national trend, the article acknowledges that not all markets will decline at the same rate. Mid‑size cities like Austin and Nashville are projected to see slight increases or a hold, thanks to strong job growth and limited inventory. Meanwhile, high‑cost markets like San Francisco and New York are expected to face a more pronounced dip—up to 4 % in the worst‑case scenario.

4. Expert Opinions

The article intersperses commentary from industry experts:

• Emily Zhao, Senior Market Analyst at Zillow: “We’re seeing a clear shift in buyer sentiment—many are postponing purchases until rates come down.”
• Tom Redding, President of Redding Real Estate: “If prices fall as forecast, sellers who were priced too high in 2024 might see a harder time. Buyers will have more room to negotiate.”
• Dr. Maya Patel, Economist at the University of Chicago: “The real estate market is a lagging indicator of the broader economy. A 2026 decline could signal a tightening of credit and an approaching slowdown in housing‑related spending.”

5. What This Means for Buyers and Sellers

For Buyers:
- Opportunity: Lower prices and potentially more favorable interest rates in the next two years could translate into savings of several hundred thousand dollars on a typical home.
- Caution: Buyers should remain vigilant for local market nuances; a city’s forecast may not capture a sudden influx of development projects that could offset a decline.

For Sellers:
- Preparation: Sellers who anticipate a decline should consider pricing strategies that align with the projected 2.3 % drop, especially if they have long‑term rental goals.
- Marketing: Highlighting features that appeal to value‑oriented buyers—like modern kitchens and energy‑efficient appliances—can help maintain interest even as prices soften.

6. How to Stay Informed

The article provides links to several useful resources:

• Realtor.com Housing Market Outlook Dashboard (interactive chart of price trends by city).
• U.S. Census Bureau’s Construction Data for a deeper dive into supply trends.
• Federal Reserve’s Mortgage Rate Tracker, to monitor the cost of borrowing.

By consulting these tools, homeowners, buyers, and investors can stay ahead of the curve.

7. Bottom Line

The News4SanAntonio.com article, powered by Realtor.com’s data, paints a cautiously optimistic picture of the 2026 housing market: a modest 2.3 % decline across 22 major U.S. cities. Rising mortgage rates, inflation, and the gradual rollback of pandemic‑era demand are the main drivers. While the forecast warns of a price dip, it also underscores opportunities for buyers who can capitalize on lower home costs, and for sellers who adapt their strategies accordingly.

Whether you’re looking to buy, sell, or invest, the key takeaway is to keep a close eye on the evolving macroeconomic signals—and to use the wealth of data now available to make informed decisions.