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Realtor.com Forecasts 2026 Cooling in 22 Major U.S. Housing Markets
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Published in House and Home on Wednesday, December 3rd 2025 at 12:39 GMT by Local 12 WKRC Cincinnati- 🞛 This publication is a summary or evaluation of another publication
- 🞛 This publication contains editorial commentary or bias from the source
Realtor.com Forecasts a 2026 Cooling in 22 Major U.S. Markets, Including Fort Lauderdale and Chicago
In a fresh analysis released by the online real‑estate platform Realtor.com, a sizable shift is expected in the American housing market next year. According to the firm’s proprietary models, median home prices in 22 cities are projected to decline in 2026. The report, which highlights Fort Lauderdale, Florida, and Chicago, Illinois as two of the most affected markets, points to a confluence of post‑pandemic dynamics, rising interest rates, and changing buyer preferences as the main drivers of this forecast.
How the Forecast Was Built
Realtor.com’s analysis draws from a multi‑factor model that blends historical sales data, current inventory levels, and macro‑economic indicators such as mortgage‑rate trends and local employment figures. The platform’s data science team uses machine‑learning algorithms to spot patterns that traditional forecasting methods might miss.
The report is grounded in a decade of data: from 2013 to 2023, the median sale price in Fort Lauderdale jumped more than 30 % during the pandemic‑era “price‑pressure” phase, as demand surged and supply lagged behind. Since early 2024, however, the market has begun to correct. Inventory levels have risen, and the average days on market have lengthened from 15 days in 2023 to roughly 35 days in early 2024.
When the model was run for 2026, it suggested a moderate decline—between 4 % and 7 %—across the 22 cities examined. The most pronounced drop was expected in markets that saw the sharpest gains during the pandemic, notably Fort Lauderdale and Chicago.
The 22 Cities Under Watch
While the article lists all 22 locations in detail, here are a few that the report flagged as “high‑impact” markets:
| City | 2023 Median Price | Forecasted 2026 Median Price | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fort Lauderdale, FL | $415,000 | $387,000 | –6.8 % |
| Chicago, IL | $320,000 | $298,000 | –6.9 % |
| Austin, TX | $490,000 | $458,000 | –6.5 % |
| Seattle, WA | $780,000 | $727,000 | –6.8 % |
| Miami, FL | $550,000 | $512,000 | –7.1 % |
Note: Percentages are rounded and represent the model’s central estimate.
The article links to a detailed spreadsheet (via a “Download Data” button) that allows readers to view the raw numbers for every city. The “Realtor.com Forecast” page provides a visual map that shades cities by the magnitude of the expected price drop.
Why Fort Lauderdale and Chicago Are Poised to Soften
Fort Lauderdale
The city’s real‑estate story has been shaped by a dramatic surge in short‑term rentals and high‑end condo sales during the height of the pandemic. The influx of out‑of‑state buyers, many of whom never moved into permanent homes, created a bubble that began to pop as the economic stimulus slowed and travel restrictions eased.
Realtor.com analyst Maria Gonzales notes, “Fort Lauderdale’s inventory is at its highest in a decade, and many of the new listings are priced above the current market median. Sellers are forced to lower prices to attract buyers who now have more options.”
Moreover, the city’s zoning changes, aimed at increasing affordable housing stock, have broadened the supply side of the equation. Combined with a modest rise in the 30‑year fixed mortgage rate (currently hovering around 6.8 % versus 5.5 % in 2021), buyers are beginning to feel the pressure of higher financing costs.
Chicago
Chicago’s housing market has long been a blend of core‑city apartments and sprawling suburbia. The pandemic accelerated a trend toward larger homes and more space, as remote work became the norm. Many city‑center buyers moved to the suburbs, creating a temporary lull in downtown sales.
The forecast cites a 25 % increase in inventory for Chicago’s core areas between 2022 and 2024. “We’re seeing a surplus of high‑priced condos that have been on the market for over six months,” says Chicago‑based broker John Patel. “Sellers need to adjust expectations if they want to close deals in 2026.”
Furthermore, the city’s economic rebound is uneven. While the manufacturing sector has rebounded, the services sector—historically the engine of housing demand—has seen slower growth. When combined with a projected increase in mortgage rates, this sets the stage for a modest decline.
Supporting Data and Resources
- Realtor.com Forecast Dashboard – A publicly available interactive map that displays projected price changes for all 22 cities.
- City of Fort Lauderdale Housing Office – Offers monthly housing reports that detail inventory levels, median price trends, and zoning changes.
- Chicago Metropolitan Housing Study – A research publication that tracks the city’s supply‑demand balance and affordability metrics.
Readers interested in deeper analysis can follow the links embedded in the article to each of these resources.
Implications for Buyers and Sellers
A predicted dip of 4–7 % may not sound like much, but for large families or investors it can translate into substantial savings or lost profit.
- Buyers can take advantage of a more favorable price point, especially if they’ve been waiting for a more stable market to make a purchase. However, they should remain cautious, as price changes may not be uniform across neighborhoods.
- Sellers should consider pricing strategies that factor in the rising inventory and the higher mortgage rates that buyers face. “A well‑timed price reduction can help keep your property competitive,” Gonzales advises.
Real‑estate professionals predict that the market will not collapse but rather level off into a more balanced state where supply and demand are closer in equilibrium. This could mean lower prices for buyers but also lower selling prices for owners, creating a win‑win scenario in the long run.
Bottom Line
Realtor.com’s 2026 forecast signals a gentle cooling in 22 U.S. housing markets, with Fort Lauderdale and Chicago at the forefront of the predicted price declines. The shift is driven by post‑pandemic changes in inventory, mortgage‑rate pressures, and evolving buyer preferences. Buyers looking for a better deal and sellers preparing to adjust to a new market equilibrium will find the forecast a useful guide as they navigate the next phase of the housing cycle.
Read the Full Local 12 WKRC Cincinnati Article at:
[ https://local12.com/news/nation-world/house-prices-to-decrease-in-2026-in-22-cities-according-to-realtor-com-fort-lauderdale-florida-pandemic-chicago ]
