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Pending Home Sales Surge in August, Beating All Forecasts

  //house-home.news-articles.net/content/2025/09/2 .. sales-surge-in-august-beating-all-forecasts.html
  Published in House and Home on Monday, September 29th 2025 at 14:07 GMT by breitbart.com
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Pending Home Sales Surge in August, Beating All Forecasts

The U.S. housing market has thrown a surprising curveball this August. According to a story published by Breitbart on September 29, 2025, pending home sales — the measure of contracts that have not yet closed — jumped to a record‑high level that left analysts and economists scrambling to reconcile their models. The surge not only eclipsed the predictions of most forecasters, but it also suggested that the housing bubble might be stabilizing after a year of sharp contraction.

The Numbers That Matter

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) released its August pending‑sales report on September 23, citing 1.28 million contracts in the month. This marks a 1.1 % increase over July and an almost 6 % year‑on‑year rise from August 2024. The benchmark for “beating expectations” came from a composite forecast generated by the Real Estate Forecasting Institute (REFI), which had projected 1.27 million pending sales for August. The actual count thus exceeded the forecast by about 10,000 contracts, a 0.8 % margin that, given the high volume, translates into over 4 million additional homes on the market that are locked in under contract.

The story notes that the uptick is driven by low inventory — the market still only has roughly 4.3 months of supply according to the latest Census Bureau data, down from 5.1 months in July. In addition, median sales prices have nudged upward to $445,000, a 3 % rise from July, while mortgage rates have stabilized around 6.8 % (the highest level in the last decade). Even with rates hovering near the 5‑year peak, buyers appear to be finding value in the limited supply and thus are willing to commit to contracts more aggressively.

Context: A Market in Flux

The past 12 months have seen a dramatic contraction in the housing market. In August 2024, pending sales fell to 1.20 million, a 5 % decline from the previous year. The narrative in the Breitbart piece stresses that the sharp rise in August signals a possible turning point: “the data may indicate that the cooling trend is finally slowing, and that the market could be entering a phase of stability.”

One key factor driving the August surge is the tight inventory. The NAR’s inventory index, released with the August data, reported a decline to 3.8 months of supply—below the 4.5‑month threshold that economists view as a “contractionary” signal. With fewer houses on the market, the competition among buyers has increased, causing many to lock in contracts quickly before sellers can react.

Another factor is the rate environment. While the Federal Reserve has maintained a 5 % policy rate since May 2024, the Fed’s latest commentary suggests a possible pause in rate hikes until the end of 2025. The NAR’s accompanying press release (https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/release/pending-home-sales-august-2025) cites a recent survey of 1,000 home buyers who stated that they are “highly confident” in a continued rate pause, which may be encouraging them to move forward with purchases.

What This Means for Sellers and Buyers

For sellers, the August data is a sign that market momentum is back. Real estate agents quoted in the article say that they are seeing “an uptick in open‑house traffic and more competitive offers.” The median days on market fell from 45 days in July to 37 days in August, underscoring the accelerated pace of transactions.

Buyers, on the other hand, may be seeing a double‑edged sword. While the rise in pending sales may indicate that good deals are becoming scarce, it also means that the market is not as volatile as it was during the peak of the pandemic‑era boom. Mortgage lenders are noting that the average loan-to-value (LTV) ratio has increased to 79 %, suggesting that buyers are pulling larger down‑payments relative to price—a trend that could mitigate risk for lenders and keep rates from spiking further.

Linking Out: Additional Data Points

The Breitbart article also links to a few other sources that provide deeper insight:

1. Census Bureau Housing Starts Data – The story references a March 2025 release (https://www.census.gov/housing/housingstarts/) showing a 12 % rise in new construction starts compared to the previous year. This uptick in supply, albeit modest, may help alleviate inventory pressures over the next 12–18 months.

2. Freddie Mac Mortgage Rate Tracker – A linked page (https://www.freddiemac.com/mortgagerates) shows the 30‑year fixed‑rate mortgage hovering at 6.8 % for the first time in five years, yet remaining near its all‑time high. The article notes that the stability in rates, despite the Fed’s pause, could be a sign of broader market confidence.

3. NAR’s Market Outlook – The NAR also published a “Monthly Outlook” (https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/macro-report) that projects pending sales to rise to 1.30 million in September if the trend continues. The report acknowledges that inventory constraints may drive up prices in the next 3–6 months, a warning that sellers should heed.

The Bottom Line

Pending home sales surged in August 2025 to 1.28 million contracts, beating the 1.27 million forecast by REFI and signaling a possible shift toward market stability. Low inventory, a stabilized interest‑rate environment, and a surge in buyer confidence appear to be the key drivers behind this unexpected jump. For sellers, the data implies renewed momentum and quicker sales cycles. For buyers, the trend suggests that competition will stay high, but also that the market may be less prone to wild price swings than in the past.

Ultimately, the August spike provides a hopeful glimmer for a market that has struggled for too long with high rates and low inventory. The next few months will be critical to see whether the surge translates into sustained growth or if the housing market will remain a roller coaster for the foreseeable future.