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US Housing Market Sees Price Drops in Major Cities

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  //house-home.news-articles.net/content/2026/01/0 .. ing-market-sees-price-drops-in-major-cities.html
  Published in House and Home on Thursday, January 8th 2026 at 7:05 GMT by Daily Mail

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WASHINGTON D.C. - The US housing market is undergoing a noticeable correction, with prices falling in several major metropolitan areas. Cities that experienced the most rapid appreciation during the pandemic - notably Austin, Texas, and San Diego, California - are currently seeing the steepest declines. This shift is prompting questions about the future of the market and whether a full-blown crash is on the horizon.

The latest data from the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index reveals a significant downturn in several key markets. In November, Austin home prices were down 12.9% year-over-year, while San Diego experienced an 11.1% decrease. Other cities recording substantial price drops include Seattle (-8.4%), Denver (-6.2%), and Portland, Oregon (-5.6%). These figures represent a stark contrast to the frenzied buying activity and escalating prices that characterized the pandemic era.

However, while the drops are considerable, a consensus among most economists is that a 2008-style housing crash is unlikely. The current situation is widely viewed as a normalization following an unsustainable boom fueled by unique pandemic-related factors. Robert Dietz, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders, explains, "We're seeing a normalization of the market. Prices are coming down from the peaks they reached during the pandemic, but they're still above pre-pandemic levels." This suggests a recalibration rather than a collapse, bringing prices back to more sustainable levels.

Several factors are contributing to this cooling trend. The most prominent is the sharp increase in mortgage rates. The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage currently hovers around 6.8%, a significant jump from the 3.1% seen at the beginning of 2022. This increase substantially raises the cost of homeownership, effectively reducing buyer demand and pricing some potential purchasers out of the market. Simultaneously, housing supply is gradually increasing, giving buyers more options and introducing downward pressure on prices. The combination of decreased demand and increased supply is naturally leading to price corrections.

Despite the general optimism, concerns remain about the affordability of housing and the potential for a more severe downturn. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, points to the continued high price-to-income ratios and the financial strain on many potential homebuyers. He highlights similarities to the pre-2008 conditions, citing high prices, increased credit availability (though not to the same extent as before), and speculative investment. However, crucially, the lending landscape differs significantly today. Unlike 2008, when subprime mortgages and lax lending standards were rampant, current lending standards are far stricter, minimizing the risk of widespread defaults.

The resilience of the labor market is also playing a key role. While economic forecasts are always subject to change, current projections suggest continued job growth, which provides a degree of stability to the housing market. A healthy job market means people are more likely to have the income necessary to afford mortgage payments.

Looking ahead, experts anticipate that the decline in home prices will likely continue, particularly in those markets that were previously overvalued. This presents a potential opportunity for buyers who have been waiting for prices to fall. However, they should be prepared to negotiate and conduct thorough due diligence. The market is shifting in favor of buyers, but a degree of caution is still warranted.

The situation requires continued monitoring. While a crash seems unlikely, the current correction highlights the sensitivity of the housing market to economic conditions. Rising interest rates, inflation, and overall economic uncertainty could all exert further downward pressure on prices. The coming months will be critical in determining the long-term trajectory of the US housing market and whether the current correction evolves into something more substantial.