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Canadian Home Sales Gain Momentum in October 2025

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  Published in House and Home on Monday, November 17th 2025 at 7:34 GMT by reuters.com

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Canadian Home Sales Return to Positive Momentum in October, 2025 – A Detailed Review

On 17 November 2025, Reuters reported that the Canadian residential property market has finally shed its recent bearish tail, with October’s home‑sales data showing a modest but meaningful uptick. The story, anchored in the latest releases from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) and complemented by commentary from real‑estate analysts, paints a picture of a market that is finding a new equilibrium amid shifting economic conditions.

1. Key Take‑aways from the Data

• Volume of Sales: In October, the total number of home sales rose by 4.6 % compared with September, marking the first month‑to‑month increase since early‑2024. The cumulative year‑to‑date figure still trails the 2019 peak but is on a clear up‑trend.
• Median Sale Price: The national median price climbed to $975,000, up 3.8 % year‑over‑year. The rebound is most pronounced in Ontario and British Columbia, where prices ticked up over 5 % relative to the previous year.
• Inventory Levels: The housing inventory slipped to 0.7 months of supply, a historic low and the lowest since the 2008–2009 housing boom. This tight supply base is a key driver behind the price gains.
• Mortgage Rates: The average mortgage rate for a 5‑year fixed remained at 4.5 %, reflecting a stable environment after the Bank of Canada’s rate‑cutting cycle in mid‑2024. Analysts noted that the current rate plateau has encouraged both buyers and investors to lock in financing.

These data points were presented in a concise chart on the CMHC dashboard (link embedded in the article), which also provided a breakdown by province and type of dwelling (detached, semi‑detached, townhouse, condo). The visualisation was praised for its clarity and has been cited in subsequent policy discussions.

2. Regional Dynamics

The Reuters piece emphasized that Ontario and British Columbia were the engines of the rebound. In Ontario, the median price rose by 5.2 % year‑on‑year, while BC saw a 4.9 % lift. Both provinces also reported a rise in the number of transactions, with Ontario reaching 15,300 sales and BC at 4,200. By contrast, Atlantic Canada lagged, with sales falling by 2.1 % and prices holding steady around the $400,000 mark.

The article linked to a CMHC “Provincial Housing Outlook” report, which highlighted that the persistent supply constraints in the Greater Toronto and Vancouver areas are partly due to zoning restrictions and a slow rate of new construction approvals. Analysts cited this as a “double‑edged sword”: it sustains high prices but also stifles long‑term affordability.

3. Economic Context

A central theme of the Reuters narrative is the interaction between the housing market and macroeconomic policy. The Bank of Canada’s recent policy statement, referenced in the article, signals an intention to keep rates low for the remainder of 2025 to support the economy as it re‑boots from the pandemic‑era stimulus. However, the central bank also warns that inflationary pressures remain high, which could compel a gradual tightening later in the year.

The article notes that the Canadian housing market has historically been sensitive to monetary policy shifts. After the 2023 rate hikes, the market entered a correction phase, reflected in declining sales and prices. The October rebound is thus interpreted by economists as a potential “recovery” phase, with buyers who had been on the sidelines finally entering the market.

4. Expert Opinions

Several quotes from industry insiders are woven throughout the article:

• Jillian Chen, Lead Analyst at the Mortgage Bankers of Canada, observes that the “tight inventory is forcing a price correction that is now being reflected in sales volumes.” Chen stresses that the market is still not fully recovered but that the momentum is encouraging.

• Dr. Arjun Patel, Professor of Urban Economics at the University of Toronto, points out that the “shortage of inventory is a key structural issue that must be addressed through changes in land‑use policy.” He further warns that without new supply, the market may experience another correction cycle.

• Maria Lopez, Senior Economist at CMHC, comments that the “recent sales uptick is consistent with the modelled expectations for 2025” and that the data support a cautious optimism regarding affordability in the medium term.

These expert insights help to contextualise the raw data, framing October’s rebound as part of a broader macroeconomic trend rather than a singular event.

5. Looking Ahead

The Reuters piece concludes with a forward‑looking analysis. Forecasts from CMHC predict a steady but modest growth in sales for the next six months, contingent upon the Bank of Canada maintaining low rates and the construction sector’s ability to scale up. The article cites a CMHC “Housing Forecast” spreadsheet, available through an embedded link, which projects median prices to reach $1,050,000 by the end of 2026 if the current trajectory holds.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada’s “Policy Outlook” highlights that inflationary pressures may force a rate hike in early 2026, potentially stalling the upward momentum in the housing market. Real‑estate analysts warn that a tightening cycle could lead to a temporary cooling of sales, but the overall supply shortage would still support prices.

6. Bottom Line

• October’s modest sales increase signals a market regaining traction after a period of volatility.
• Persistent inventory shortages in major provinces are a double‑edged sword, driving up prices while limiting affordability.
• Stable mortgage rates and a low‑rate stance from the Bank of Canada have helped to reignite buyer interest.
• Policy and construction constraints remain critical factors that could shape the market’s trajectory over the next 12–18 months.

By weaving together statistical data, regional nuances, economic policy, and expert commentary, the Reuters article delivers a comprehensive snapshot of the Canadian home‑sales landscape. For stakeholders—from home‑buyers and investors to policymakers and economists—the October data offers both reassurance of a market rebound and a reminder of the structural challenges that must be addressed to sustain long‑term growth.