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Florida housing market slows as homes take 98 days to sell

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  Published in House and Home on Thursday, November 6th 2025 at 18:47 GMT by HousingWire

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Florida’s Housing Market in 2025: Inventory Builds, Demand, and the Path Forward

The Florida housing market continues to be a hotbed of activity, with inventory levels and builder output shaping the landscape for buyers, sellers, and developers alike. A recent analysis by HousingWire dives deep into the state’s supply dynamics, projecting that the inventory of new homes will remain tight well into 2025, while construction activity will slowly rise to meet pent-up demand.

1. The Current Supply‑Demand Gap

Florida’s housing market has been running on a shoestring supply for the past few years. As of the end of 2023, the state’s inventory stood at a staggering 0.53 months of supply, meaning it would take roughly 16 weeks to absorb all the homes currently available at the prevailing price points. By comparison, a balanced market typically has 4.5–6 months of inventory, while a seller’s market sits between 2–3 months. The low number reflects a combination of high buyer demand, low new‑home construction, and limited resale inventory.

The U.S. Census Bureau’s Monthly Housing Market Activity report corroborates these figures, noting that the nationwide supply fell to a record low in 2023, with a similar trend mirrored in Florida’s major metro areas: Miami, Orlando, Tampa, and Jacksonville. While the national average has seen a modest rebound to 0.77 months of supply, Florida remains the most extreme case.

2. New Construction – Where Are Builders Heading?

2.1 Residential Starts

Florida’s builder activity, measured by new construction permits and housing starts, has been sluggish. In 2023, the state recorded 42,000 new single‑family residential permits, down 7.6% from the previous year. Multi‑family starts were even weaker, with only 2,500 permits issued for apartment units—a 4.1% decline.

The Florida Housing Finance Corporation (FHFC) report indicates that labor shortages, supply‑chain disruptions, and rising material costs have deterred many builders from initiating new projects. Despite these hurdles, the FHFC forecasts a gradual uptick in construction activity in 2024, with a 3.8% increase in single‑family permits and a 5.5% rise in multi‑family permits. By 2025, the forecasted jump is even more pronounced: 5.1% for single‑family and 7.2% for multi‑family units.

2.2 Completed Builds

When it comes to completed builds, the numbers lag behind the permits issued. In 2023, the Florida Realtors’s National Housing Survey reported that only 36,800 new homes were delivered, representing a 14.2% shortfall from permits. This gap is attributed to delayed construction schedules and the time lag between permitting and completion.

By 2025, the HousingWire article projects that the backlog will narrow, with at least 2,500 additional single‑family homes and 1,200 multi‑family units finishing per year. These projections translate to a modest increase in inventory, but the supply will still fall short of the national balance benchmark.

3. Key Drivers of 2025 Inventory Builds

3.1 Mortgage Rates

One of the primary forces shaping the Florida housing market is the fluctuating mortgage environment. Mortgage rates peaked at 7.0% in early 2024 and have since steadied at around 6.5%. Higher rates dampen affordability, squeezing buyer demand and thereby restraining builder incentives. However, as rates are expected to stabilize or decline in 2025, the market could see a gentle rebound in both sales and new construction.

3.2 Labor and Material Costs

Labor shortages have persisted across the construction sector, with the U.S. Department of Labor reporting a 4.6% rise in construction wages between 2023 and 2024. Coupled with volatile supply chains for lumber, steel, and cement, these cost pressures push builders to delay or cancel projects. Nevertheless, a shift toward modular construction and the use of pre‑manufactured components—an approach highlighted by Florida Housing Wire’s partner, HomeBuilt Technologies—could mitigate these challenges.

3.3 Demographic Shifts

Florida’s population continues to grow, fueled by domestic migration from the Northeast and Midwest. The U.S. Census Bureau projects a 6.4% increase in Florida’s population between 2023 and 2025. The influx of retirees, young professionals, and families drives demand for varied housing types—from single‑family starter homes to multi‑family rentals. Builders are adjusting their portfolios accordingly, with a higher emphasis on mid‑size homes and walk‑up apartments in urban centers.

3.4 Policy and Incentives

State policy initiatives, such as the Florida Housing Finance Corporation’s down‑payment assistance programs, aim to broaden access for first‑time buyers. These programs can spur demand and, in turn, justify new builds. Additionally, the Florida Department of Transportation’s upcoming infrastructure projects—particularly in the Orlando and Tampa regions—are expected to boost land values, making new construction more attractive.

4. What Does 2025 Look Like?

The HousingWire article presents a scenario in which inventory builds in 2025 will inch upward but will remain below the 4–5 months benchmark. Expected developments include:

• Single‑Family Homes: Inventory expected to rise by approximately 3.4% year‑on‑year, translating to roughly 1,400 new homes in key markets.
• Multi‑Family Units: A projected 4.8% increase, equating to about 600 additional apartment units across the state.
• Market‑Specific Dynamics: Miami’s supply is projected to stay the tightest, with a 0.57‑month inventory by year‑end, while Orlando may see a modest improvement to 0.64 months.
• Price Trends: The median price for a single‑family home will hover near $385,000, with multi‑family unit prices averaging $240,000 per unit.

Despite these incremental gains, buyers in Florida can expect to remain in a seller’s market throughout 2025, with inventory still significantly below the balanced threshold. For developers, the window for profitable builds exists, but careful project planning and cost control will be critical.

5. Bottom Line

Florida’s housing market is poised for a cautious upswing in 2025, with inventory builds nudging forward in response to demographic momentum, potential mortgage rate stabilization, and strategic shifts in builder operations. However, the market will likely continue to operate on a shoestring supply, ensuring that demand remains robust and pricing pressures persist. Stakeholders—home buyers, investors, and developers—must remain vigilant, monitoring rate movements, supply chain dynamics, and policy developments that could tilt the balance of this dynamic and fast‑evolving market.