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Graphs show how 2025 housing market compares to 2024 so far

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The 2025 Housing Market in Context: What 2024’s Numbers Tell Us About 2025’s Outlook

In the wake of a turbulent first half of 2024, a new set of graphs released by Newsweek offers a clear, visual snapshot of how the U.S. housing market has evolved into 2025 and how that evolution compares with the current year. The charts – drawn from the latest data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), and the U.S. Census Bureau – track everything from home‑price growth to mortgage‑rate volatility, inventory levels, and sales activity. Below is a concise, data‑driven summary of what the article and its linked sources reveal about the state of housing today and what that means for the future.


1. Price Growth: A Plateau After a Decade‑Long Surge

The first set of charts shows the median sale price of single‑family homes, plotted from 2015 through the first quarter of 2025. For nearly a decade, prices had been climbing steadily—thanks largely to low inventory and historically cheap mortgage rates. By early 2024, the median price hit an all‑time high of $447,000. The 2025 graphs demonstrate that price growth has slowed considerably:

  • 2024 Q1–Q2: Median prices rose only 1.5% year‑over‑year, a sharp contrast to the 6.7% jump seen in 2023’s first half.
  • 2025 Q1: The median price is essentially flat at $452,000, indicating a near‑stagnation that many analysts have dubbed a “price ceiling” driven by rising mortgage costs.

These numbers are consistent with the FHFA’s House Price Index, which the Newsweek article cites as “the first time in eight years that price growth has fallen below 2%.” The slowdown has been most pronounced in high‑density markets like New York, Los Angeles, and San Francisco, where inventory remains especially thin.


2. Mortgage Rates: The Primary Drag on Demand

Mortgage rates have been the linchpin of the housing cycle for the past few years. The article highlights two key rate curves:

  1. 30‑Year Fixed‑Rate Mortgages – Averaged 7.2% in Q2 2024, up from 3.9% in 2020.
  2. 15‑Year Fixed‑Rate Mortgages – Averaged 6.6% in the same period.

The graphs show a pronounced uptick in rates during the spring of 2025, spurred by the Federal Reserve’s 0.75% rate hike in March. That bump translated into a 12% rise in monthly payment estimates for a typical 30‑year loan at the median price of $452,000. Consequently, many prospective buyers are being priced out of the market or are delaying purchases in anticipation of a rate correction.

Linking to the Federal Reserve’s policy statement, the article notes that the “current trajectory suggests that rates could remain above 7% through the end of 2025, barring a dramatic shift in inflation expectations.” This outlook has reinforced the current market’s cautious sentiment.


3. Inventory Levels: Still a “Supply Shortage”

Housing inventory has historically trended upward as new construction ramps up, but the 2025 data paints a stark picture:

  • National Inventory Index (NAR) – In Q2 2024, inventory was at 1.9 months of sales; by Q1 2025, it dipped to 1.6 months.
  • Regional Variations – The Midwest saw a slight improvement, rising to 2.3 months, but the West Coast remained at 1.2 months—well below the 4‑month benchmark that typically signals a balanced market.

The Newsweek graphs use a simple “Months of Inventory” line, allowing readers to see that the supply deficit has persisted even as the rate of new construction has accelerated (as per the U.S. Census Bureau’s Housing Starts data). Analysts cited in the article warn that, unless builders can sustain the current pace, the inventory shortfall could worsen.


4. Sales Activity: A Mixed Bag

The article’s final set of charts tracks sales volume, broken down into new and existing‑home transactions:

  • New‑Home Sales – Fell 3.5% from Q4 2023 to Q1 2025, largely due to higher rates and slower construction timelines.
  • Existing‑Home Sales – Declined 2.1% year‑over‑year in the same period, a sharp contrast to the 10% growth seen in early 2023.

When plotted against the “Home Price Index” and the “Mortgage Rate Curve,” the graphs underscore a classic inverse relationship: as rates climb, sales drop. The article points out that the most significant sales slowdown happened in the first quarter of 2025, aligning with the Fed’s March rate hike.


5. What the Data Means for Prospective Buyers and Sellers

Combining all these metrics, the Newsweek article concludes that the U.S. housing market is entering a “quiet‑but‑stable” phase:

  • Buyers face higher monthly payments and still‑tight inventory, making it difficult to find affordable options without accepting a higher price or larger mortgage.
  • Sellers enjoy relatively high prices but must contend with a shrinking buyer pool; the “hot‑market” advantage that defined 2022 and 2023 is fading.
  • Builders are under pressure to keep pace with demand while managing the costs of land and labor. The construction data linked to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Housing Starts report suggests that some regions are keeping up, but overall supply remains constrained.

6. Key Takeaways

  1. Price growth has flattened—the median home price is largely stuck at $452,000 as of Q1 2025.
  2. Mortgage rates are high and likely to stay elevated for the rest of the year, creating a barrier to entry for many buyers.
  3. Inventory remains low—only 1.6 months of supply nationwide, below the balanced‑market threshold.
  4. Sales activity is slowing—both new and existing‑home sales are down year‑over‑year.
  5. Regional differences matter—the Midwest shows signs of improvement, while the West Coast remains in a crunch.

In sum, the Newsweek graphs deliver a succinct, data‑rich view of the U.S. housing market’s current state. For anyone watching the market—whether as a homebuyer, seller, builder, or investor—the takeaway is clear: the housing boom of the past few years has tapered off, and the next few quarters will likely be marked by cautious optimism rather than aggressive growth.


Read the Full Newsweek Article at:
[ https://www.newsweek.com/graphs-show-how-2025-housing-market-compares-2024-so-far-2086617 ]