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Fall housing market moving towards a 'balance.' What does it mean for you? - National | Globalnews.ca

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  Published in House and Home on Wednesday, October 15th 2025 at 15:25 GMT by Global News
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I will attempt to fetch content.The Canadian Housing Market Finds Its Sweet Spot: A Deep Dive Into the Fall Balance

In a period that has seen Canada’s real‑estate landscape oscillate between rapid price appreciation and frenetic demand, the latest data suggest the market is now finding equilibrium. Global News’ analysis of the fall housing market balances, anchored in a mix of statistical reports and industry commentary, paints a picture of a sector that is cooling but still robust, with inventory levels inching higher and mortgage rates exerting a dampening effect on buyer enthusiasm.

Slowing Price Growth Across the Nation

The Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) reported a modest 1.7 % year‑over‑year rise in average residential property prices in the first quarter of 2024, a sharp deceleration from the 7.5 % climb recorded a year earlier. While the pace has slowed, prices remain elevated relative to pre‑pandemic levels. CMHC’s “National Housing Market Update” underscores that the steepest gains have been in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and the Greater Vancouver Area, where prices have surged by 9.2 % and 7.6 % respectively since 2022.

CMHC spokesperson Marie‑Louise Gagnon notes, “After a period of unprecedented growth driven by low borrowing costs and a surge in demand, the market is beginning to re‑balance. Homeowners are enjoying a more stable environment, and buyers are starting to feel the impact of higher rates.”

Rising Inventory and the Slow‑Start of New Listings

Inventory – the number of homes available for sale – has always been a barometer of market health. In the last 12 months, new listings rose by 4.5 %, while the total housing inventory increased by 3.2 %. While these figures are still far below the “ideal” 4‑month supply benchmark used by real‑estate analysts, they represent a notable uptick from the 1.9 % increase recorded in the same period a year ago.

The Toronto Real Estate Board reports that the average days‑on‑market for homes dropped from 35 days in January 2024 to 27 days by June, indicating that while supply is slowly catching up, demand remains strong. In contrast, Vancouver’s property market has experienced a modest rise in days‑on‑market, reflecting a more gradual shift toward balance.

Mortgage Rates: A Double‑Edged Sword

The Bank of Canada’s decision to raise the overnight policy rate to 5.25 % in March 2024 has ripple effects across mortgage products. Mortgage rates on a 5‑year fixed have climbed from 2.5 % to 4.1 %, a 60 % increase over the past year. This has curbed the borrowing power of many potential homeowners and moderated the pace of price appreciation.

Mortgage broker Alan Cheng of “Cheng & Co.” comments, “Higher rates mean higher monthly payments for buyers. Some are being priced out of the market, especially in the upper‑middle‑income bracket that typically dominated the boom years. This shift is forcing the market toward a more balanced footing.”

Government Initiatives and Affordability

Amid the market’s re‑balancing, the federal government’s National Housing Strategy remains a central pillar of policy. The strategy’s “Affordable Housing Action Plan” aims to deliver 100,000 new affordable homes by 2026, a move that is expected to increase long‑term inventory and support price stability.

“Affordable housing is key to sustaining the market’s health,” says CMHC’s Gagnon. “The more we can offer homes that are affordable to the broader public, the less pressure there is on market dynamics.”

Looking Ahead: Projections and Uncertainties

CMHC’s forecast for 2024 indicates that average home prices will continue to rise modestly, with an estimated 3.8 % growth in the GTA and 3.2 % in Vancouver by year‑end. However, analysts caution that the outlook is contingent on several variables: the trajectory of inflation, potential further rate hikes by the Bank of Canada, and the pace of housing supply expansion.

Real‑estate analysts such as James MacLeod from the Toronto Real Estate Board emphasize the need to monitor the “balance point” – the juncture where supply and demand align, potentially leading to a plateau or even a gentle decline in prices. “We’re seeing signs that the market is moving toward equilibrium, but it will take time for the full effect of policy changes and supply-side adjustments to play out,” MacLeod says.

In Summary

The fall housing market balance article by Global News synthesizes a range of data sources—CMHC reports, Bank of Canada policy announcements, and regional real‑estate statistics—to illustrate a Canadian housing market that is cooling from a frenzy of price surges but remains buoyant. Inventory levels are rising slowly, while mortgage rates are tightening buyer power. Government initiatives targeting affordable housing are poised to contribute to long‑term stability.

As the market moves toward a new equilibrium, stakeholders—buyers, sellers, policymakers, and lenders—will need to remain attuned to the interplay of supply, demand, and financing conditions that will shape Canada’s housing narrative in the coming months.