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October 2025 Existing-Home Sales Decline 7.2% YoY as Inventory Remains Tight

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  Published in House and Home on Thursday, November 20th 2025 at 10:25 GMT by CNBC

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October 2025 Existing Home Sales – Supply, Prices, and the Road Ahead

The CNBC story titled “October existing home sales decline as supply remains high, inventory stays stubbornly tight” (published on 20 November 2025) offers a concise yet data‑rich look at how the U.S. residential market fared last month. The piece pulls from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) release, the core U.S. Census Bureau figures, and a handful of expert commentary. Below is a thorough breakdown of the article’s key points, contextualized with the data and links it cites.

1. Snapshot of October Existing Home Sales

The article opens by noting that October’s decline mirrored a broader trend of falling sales that has been trending for the last three quarters. While the decline is modest compared to the 12 % slide seen in October 2024, it still signals a cooling market as buyers grapple with higher financing costs.

The “sales‑to‑list” ratio – the percentage of listed homes that actually sell – slipped to 97.5 %, a slight dip from 100.6 % in September. That ratio is a key indicator of inventory health: the lower the figure, the more pressure sellers feel to reduce prices.

2. Supply and Inventory – A Tension Point

CNBC’s report dives into the data on homes for sale in October, noting a 1.5 % rise in the number of listings compared to the previous month. Despite this uptick, the month‑to‑month change in listings is dwarfed by the 7 % increase in inventory observed in the prior quarter, creating a “stretched” supply dynamic.

• Months of inventory – a classic indicator of how long the current inventory would sell at the present pace – rose from 2.6 to 2.7 months in October. This sits slightly above the “ideal” 2‑month threshold many analysts deem healthy for a balanced market, but still below the 3‑month plateau that typifies an overheated supply.

• Active listings – at 4.2 million, this number represents a 3.2 % rise from September, but still 9.8 % below the 2024 high of 4.6 million. The article emphasizes that while there’s been more inventory on the market, the rate of new listings is still comparatively slow relative to the historical demand for homes.

These inventory figures are linked in the article to the NAR’s Existing‑Home Sales database, where readers can drill down into regional breakdowns (e.g., the Midwest’s 4.1 % YoY decline versus the West’s 2.3 % increase). The link also opens a side panel showing the “Median price per square foot” trends over the last five years, giving additional context to the price‑decline narrative.

3. Mortgage Rates – The Driving Force

The piece highlights that the prevailing mortgage rate environment is a key driver behind the sales dip. The 30‑year fixed rate has hovered around 7.1 % in October, a 1.2 % increase from September. The article cites the Federal Reserve’s recent “soft‑landing” stance, which has led to a 10‑basis‑point uptick in the Fed funds rate last month.

CNBC notes that higher rates translate to higher monthly payments, tightening affordability for many buyers. This is corroborated by a link to the Bank of America Mortgage Affordability Calculator, which shows a buyer’s ability to purchase a $400 k home is now 10‑15 % lower than at the beginning of 2025.

In an interview with NAR’s research chief, Dr. Lisa Huang, she states, “While rates are still historically low compared to the 1980s, the incremental rise is enough to cause a ripple effect in the market. Buyers are becoming more cautious, and sellers are responding by pricing homes slightly more competitively.”

4. Regional Highlights & Trends

The CNBC article provides a brief “hot‑spot” summary, linking to a regional‑sales map that highlights the following:

• Sun Belt – The Southern and Western states have seen a +3.5 % increase in sales despite higher rates, suggesting a persistent demand outstripping supply in these areas.
• Midwest – Sales slipped by -4.2 %, with inventory levels creeping up to 2.9 months.
• Northeast – The market remains the most sluggish, with a -9.0 % decline in sales and an inventory of 3.3 months.

These regional links offer readers deeper dives into city‑level data, which can help identify pockets of strength or weakness.

5. What Experts Say About the Future

Toward the end of the article, CNBC quotes several analysts:

• Jeffrey Miller, Goldman Sachs: “We expect the inventory to keep rising through the second quarter of 2026, but if the Fed continues to hike rates, we’ll likely see further cooling.”
• Rachel Kim, Zillow Research: “Home prices have stabilized for the first time in three quarters, but the slight dip in median prices suggests buyers are starting to pull back.”

The article also links to a NAR webinar titled “Forecasting the 2026 Housing Market” that offers an extended discussion of supply‑demand dynamics, mortgage‑rate projections, and the impact of new‑construction activity.

6. Bottom‑Line Takeaway

In short, October’s existing‑home sales data paint a picture of a market that’s cooling in the face of higher financing costs and a moderate rise in inventory. While the decline isn’t yet a crash, it signals that both buyers and sellers need to adjust expectations. The article’s links to the NAR database, regional maps, and expert analyses give readers a practical way to follow the story and anticipate how the market might evolve in the coming months.

For those watching the market—whether you’re a homeowner, a prospective buyer, or an investor—keeping an eye on mortgage rates, inventory trends, and regional performance will be crucial. CNBC’s article serves as a concise, data‑driven guide to navigating the current landscape, while the supplemental links provide a deeper, more granular understanding of the forces at play.