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Housing Numbers Point to a Buyer's Market - but Affordability Remains a Tough Hurdle

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  Published in House and Home on Wednesday, November 19th 2025 at 12:15 GMT by CNBC

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Housing Numbers Point to a Buyer’s Market – but Affordability Remains a Tough Hurdle

The housing market is in a phase of shifting dynamics, and CNBC’s in‑depth look into the latest figures—drawn from a blend of primary data, industry reports, and expert commentary—offers a clear snapshot of where buyers stand today. The headline takeaway is that inventory is slowly climbing, and mortgage rates have eased enough to open the door for a modest buyer’s market, but affordability remains a persistent stumbling block for many.

1. Rising Inventory and a Gradual Shift in Balance

The article opens by noting that the housing inventory level has slipped from its historic low, moving from a 1.2‑month supply in October to a 1.3‑month supply as of November. This change, while still below the 2‑month mark that signals a true buyer’s market, represents a small but noteworthy uptick. CNBC links to the National Association of Realtors (NAR) monthly report to confirm that single‑family listings are up by 7.1% year‑over‑year and that the average days on market have risen to 42 days, the longest stretch since the early 2020s.

The rise in inventory is partially attributed to a slowdown in construction and a growing number of homeowners who are now willing to list their properties after a decade of holding. Industry analysts quoted in the article, such as John Kim of the NAR, emphasize that “a modest rise in inventory is the first signal that the market is starting to level out, but the supply remains constrained by the lingering effects of the pandemic‑era boom.”

2. Mortgage Rates Dip, But the Path to Homeownership is Still Narrow

The piece then dives into mortgage data, referencing the Freddie Mac’s Home Mortgage Rates report, which shows a modest decline in the average 30‑year fixed‑rate from 7.25% to 6.98% in the last month. While a 0.27‑point drop might seem small, the article explains that this translates to a $1,200‑per‑year savings on a typical $300,000 loan.

However, the article also reminds readers that even with lower rates, the combined burden of interest, property taxes, and insurance pushes the “housing affordability index” below 50—well below the “normal” level of 100 that indicates affordability for the median household. CNBC cites a 2024 survey from the Urban Institute which found that 67% of first‑time buyers rated affordability as “extremely difficult” or “very difficult.”

The article’s link to the Federal Reserve’s latest statement on interest‑rate policy provides context for why rates are hovering where they are. The Fed’s decision to maintain the policy rate at 5.25%–5.50% has kept mortgage rates in a tight range, but the prospect of another tightening cycle looms, raising concerns that affordability could take a further hit.

3. Regional Variations: The Southwest Continues to Lead, the Northeast Stumbles

A key part of the piece focuses on geographic disparities. CNBC pulls in a map from the U.S. Census Bureau that shows median home prices across the country. The Southwest and parts of the South still dominate the high‑price region category, with median prices topping $550,000 in Phoenix and Dallas. In contrast, the Northeast sees median prices dipping below $350,000 in many mid‑town metros, but the region still lags behind in terms of supply.

The article notes that the National Association of Realtors reported a 12% increase in listings in the Southwest in November, while the Northeast’s numbers fell by 3%. Experts from the Real Estate Research Center highlight that “regional supply dynamics are the largest determinant of whether a market can move from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market.” They also caution that even in price‑stable areas, a spike in rates could still create affordability gaps.

4. The Role of New‑Construction and the “Housing Supply Crisis”

CNBC follows a link to a Brookings Institution report that discusses the supply shortfall and the role of new‑construction projects. According to the report, construction of new single‑family homes has stagnated at a 3% annual growth rate—far below the 5%–7% growth that would be needed to meet current demand.

The article features an interview with Dr. Maya Patel, a senior housing economist at Brookings, who explains that zoning restrictions, high land costs, and labor shortages continue to impede rapid development. “Even with incentives, we’re looking at a 5‑year lag before new supply can fully address the demand deficit,” Patel says.

The piece also notes that the National Association of Home Builders has called for more streamlined permitting processes and has launched a “Fast‑Track” program in a few pilot markets to reduce approval times from 120 days to 45 days.

5. Affordability Measures Beyond the Basics

Beyond the standard affordability index, CNBC highlights new metrics being adopted by lenders and policy makers. One such metric is the Housing Affordability Index for First-Time Buyers (HAFTB), which adjusts for the fact that first‑time buyers typically have lower credit scores and higher debt‑to‑income ratios. The HAFTB sits at a 30, indicating that the cost of owning a home is roughly 30% of a first‑time buyer’s monthly income.

Another emerging indicator is the Housing Cost Burden Ratio (HCBR), which tracks the percentage of a household’s income that goes toward housing costs. For the median family in the U.S., the HCBR is currently 34%, exceeding the 30% threshold recommended by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) as a sign of a healthy housing market.

CNBC links to HUD’s policy brief on housing cost burden, underscoring that a high HCBR is associated with reduced consumer spending and increased financial stress, especially for low‑income households.

6. Policy Recommendations and What Comes Next

The article concludes with a series of policy recommendations sourced from a coalition of housing experts, including the American Housing Association and the Civic Policy Institute. These recommendations are:

1. Expand Affordable Housing Credits – Incentivize developers to include a higher percentage of affordable units in new projects.
2. Targeted Mortgage Assistance – Provide down‑payment assistance for low‑to‑moderate‑income buyers, especially in high‑cost regions.
3. Streamline Zoning Reform – Adopt “housing‑friendly” zoning changes that allow for mixed‑use and higher‑density developments.
4. Maintain Rate Stability – Keep the Federal Reserve’s policy rates steady for at least the next 12 months to avoid sudden spikes in mortgage rates.

The article points readers to the National Association of Realtors’s forthcoming policy white paper that will outline a “National Housing Affordability Blueprint,” scheduled for release in early 2026.

7. Takeaway: A Buyer’s Market is Emerging, But the Road to Affordability Is Long

While the data paints a cautiously optimistic picture—slightly higher inventory, modestly lower mortgage rates, and a gradual shift in regional balance—the overarching theme of CNBC’s piece is one of persistent challenge. Affordability metrics remain well below desirable levels, and the supply of new housing is lagging behind demand. The article, therefore, serves as a call to action for policymakers, developers, and lenders to collaborate on solutions that can bridge the gap.

For anyone navigating the market today, the article suggests staying alert to regional variations, taking advantage of the current dip in rates, and exploring first‑time‑buyer assistance programs. And for those who want deeper insight, CNBC’s linked reports—from the Freddie Mac and the National Association of Realtors to the Brookings Institution and HUD—offer a wealth of data to keep a finger on the pulse of the U.S. housing economy.