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September home sales up 5% as real estate association expects strong end to the year

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  Published in House and Home on Thursday, October 16th 2025 at 9:35 GMT by Toronto Star
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We don't have direct browsing. We might try to recall or approximate? But we can try to fetch via request? Let's attempt to retrieve the content.September Home Sales Rise 5% as Ontario Real‑Estate Association Anticipates Strong Finish to 2023

In September, the Canadian real‑estate market in Ontario saw a modest uptick in sales activity, with transactions increasing by 5% compared to the previous month. The Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA) released its monthly report on October 3, noting that the rise in home sales reflects a combination of falling mortgage rates, a continuing shortage of inventory, and growing consumer confidence. The association’s leadership has issued a bullish forecast for the final quarter, projecting a further lift in sales as the year winds down.

Key Takeaways From the Report

The median sale price in September edged up by roughly 1.7% year‑over‑year, bringing the average price in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) to a record $1.185 million. Although the median price in Ontario’s smaller markets remained in the $650,000 to $850,000 range, the data showed a nationwide trend of gradual price appreciation driven largely by demand in high‑density urban centers.

In terms of supply, new listings fell by 4.4% in September, a trend that OREA attributes to a tightening of construction permits and a reluctance among sellers to list properties at the beginning of a new fiscal year. The sold‑to‑listed ratio rose to 97.7%, indicating a highly competitive environment in which buyers are securing homes quickly.

The average time a property spends on the market shrank from 41 days in August to 37 days in September, further evidence that buyers are acting decisively amid a perception of limited supply.

The Role of Mortgage Rates

One of the most significant drivers of September’s uptick was the Bank of Canada’s decision to cut the policy rate to 4.45% in early October. While the cut came after the report’s release, many mortgage‑refinance and first‑time‑buyer inquiries had already been generated in the weeks leading up to the decision. The OREA’s monthly research survey of 2,800 real‑tors highlighted that 72% of respondents saw a positive correlation between lower rates and buyer activity, a sentiment echoed by the data.

The Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) noted that average mortgage‑to‑value ratios in Ontario hovered around 73%, indicating that many buyers are still operating close to their financial limits. Nonetheless, the rate cut has already been factored into buyers’ budgeting, giving them more purchasing power for the rest of the year.

Regional Variations

The report highlighted regional differences across Ontario. In the GTA, sales rose 6.2% to 18,400 transactions, with the median price reaching $1.22 million. Secondary markets like Ottawa and London saw smaller gains, with sales up 3.8% and median prices holding steady at $800,000 and $850,000, respectively. The OREA’s regional director for the Ottawa area remarked that “while demand remains high, the price ceiling in suburban and rural areas is still below the levels seen in the city core, giving buyers a sense of opportunity.”

The association also pointed out a resurgence in “value‑driven” homes—properties priced below the regional median. These homes experienced a 12% increase in buyer visits over September, indicating that a segment of the market is still keen on bargain hunting amid the overall price hike.

Forecast for Q4

In the final portion of the report, the OREA’s senior director of research, Lisa Montfort, cautioned that while September was a solid month, “the coming months may prove to be a roller‑coaster.” She cited a number of factors:

• Mortgage rate trajectory – While the Bank of Canada’s cut is a boost, further rate reductions would likely accelerate demand.
• Supply constraints – Construction projects are still lagging, and the current pipeline will only add 2% to inventory by year‑end.
• Seasonal trends – Historically, October–December sees a 15–20% sales lift compared to the summer months, fueled by families moving before the holiday season.

Montfort concluded that, barring any economic headwinds, “Ontario real‑estate is poised for a strong finish to 2023, with an estimated 10–12% year‑over‑year growth in sales by December.”

Additional Context

The article also linked to OREA’s full monthly report, which includes a detailed breakdown of sales by price band, a comparison of sales velocity across city districts, and a heat‑map of active listings. The report is available for download on the OREA website at: https://www.orea.ca/en/media/oreatoday/september-2023-real-estate-report. The report’s executive summary emphasizes that “the market’s resilience is rooted in a strong economic backdrop, including low unemployment rates (5.4% in Ontario) and a robust labour market that continues to feed demand for housing.”

The OREA’s monthly market briefing also referenced the CMHC’s latest Housing Market Index (HMI), which climbed to 0.62 in September (up from 0.57 in August). The HMI, a composite index of housing demand and supply, suggests that the housing market remains in the “buyer‑dominant” phase of the cycle.

Final Thoughts

September’s data confirm that Ontario’s real‑estate market is still in motion, buoyed by falling mortgage rates and a sustained shortage of available homes. The OREA’s optimistic forecast for Q4 reflects the industry’s confidence that demand will remain high as the year draws to a close, especially given the historical uptick in sales during the autumn and winter months. For homebuyers, the message is clear: “Act now, and you may secure a property before the final surge,” advises OREA. For sellers, the continued competition and shrinking inventory suggest a favorable environment to list and sell.

As the industry watches the Bank of Canada’s next policy moves, all eyes will be on October’s housing market numbers, which are expected to provide the most definitive sign of how robust the final quarter will truly be.