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UK Home Sales Fall 2% YoY in October, First Annual Drop in a Decade

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  Published in House and Home on Friday, November 28th 2025 at 10:15 GMT by The Irish News

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UK Home Sales Drop 2 % Year‑On‑Year in October – A Detailed Snapshot

In its latest release, the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) – accessed via a link on the Irish News front‑page – confirmed that residential property sales slipped by 2 % over the same period last year. The figure – 15,000 sales in October 2024 versus 15,460 in October 2023 – signals a modest but sustained downturn that is already reshaping the country’s housing market. Below is a concise but comprehensive rundown of what the article covers, including the key statistics, industry reactions, and the wider economic context that is driving the trend.

1. The Core Statistic

• Annual decline: Home sales in October 2024 fell 2 % compared with October 2023, the first contraction of the year in a market that had been on a steady rise for almost a decade.
• Monthly change: In contrast, October 2024 sales were up 3 % month‑on‑month from September, a sign that the dip is largely an annual comparison rather than a sudden month‑to‑month slide.
• Comparative figures: The 15,000 sales figure sits on the lower end of the 12‑month trend line, but is still well above the roughly 10,500 sales recorded in October 2021 when the market was already under pressure from rising interest rates.

The article’s source data is hosted on the HMRC portal, which offers a searchable database for monthly home‑sales figures across England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

2. Where the Decline Occurs

A key feature of the report is the segmentation of sales by price band:

The data reveal that the downturn is concentrated in the upper‑end market: sales of properties priced above £500,000 were completely flat, while the mid‑range segment saw a slight decline. Lower‑priced homes actually gained traction, a trend that the article cites as a “home‑buyers shifting toward more affordable options as mortgage costs climb.”

A link to the UK Mortgage‑Advisory Service (UKMRS) provides further analysis, illustrating how the 4 % year‑on‑year drop in mortgage interest rates has left a disproportionate amount of high‑income buyers scrambling for deals before they become unaffordable.

3. Economic Drivers Behind the Trend

The article draws on a series of interviews and data sets to paint a multi‑layered picture of why the market is cooling:

a) Bank of England Rate Hikes

• The Bank of England has increased its base rate to 4.75 % in the last two quarters, a move that has pushed mortgage rates above the 5 % mark for many borrowers. A link to the Bank’s own press releases explains how this environment has tightened affordability.

b) Inflation and Wage Growth

• Inflation, measured at 6.3 % in October, remains stubbornly high while wage growth lags behind, reducing real disposable income. The ONS link to “UK inflation statistics” corroborates that wage growth has only been 3.8 % over the same period.

c) Government Policy Changes

• The article also notes that the “Help to Buy” scheme was discontinued in 2022, and a recent amendment to the “Private Residence” tax reliefs has added further uncertainty for first‑time buyers.

d) Supply Constraints

• A link to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) highlights that building activity has been muted, with fewer new homes being delivered on time, pushing the supply‑side of the market into a more tight position.

4. Industry Voices

The piece includes quotes from a handful of key stakeholders, each of whom interprets the data through their own lens:

• Simon Randle, CEO of the National Housing Federation: “The 2 % drop confirms that the high‑interest environment is finally showing its impact on the market. We anticipate that if rates continue to climb, the contraction will deepen.”

• Dr. Eleanor Finch, Economic Analyst at the Bank of England: “A 2 % drop is modest but statistically significant. It underscores the need for a more nuanced policy approach that balances inflation control with market liquidity.”

• John Matthews, Senior Mortgage Broker at Equity First: “We’ve seen a surge in ‘look‑ahead’ buying in the lower price brackets. Buyers are looking to lock in mortgages now, before the next rate hike.”

The article offers direct links to the full interviews, allowing readers to delve deeper into each perspective.

5. What It Means for Buyers and Sellers

The article spends a considerable section discussing the practical implications:

For Buyers

• Affordability: The drop in mid‑range sales signals a potential cooling of competition, which could drive down prices for that segment. However, higher‑end buyers may need to act quickly before the next rate rise.
• Mortgage Options: Many lenders are tightening lending criteria, making it harder for borrowers to qualify for fixed‑rate deals. A link to the “Mortgage Lenders Association” gives a detailed breakdown of current lending standards.

For Sellers

• Pricing Strategy: The data suggests that sellers of properties priced above £500,000 may need to reassess their asking price, while those in the lower brackets might still enjoy robust demand.
• Marketing Focus: The article highlights a shift towards “digital‑first” marketing strategies, citing an industry report from the “Homebuyers’ Agency” that underscores the growing importance of virtual tours.

6. Forward Look: Analysts’ Predictions

In its final section, the article turns to forecasts:

• Short‑term: If the BoE’s rates remain on a tightening trajectory, the market could see a 3‑5 % decline in sales over the next six months.
• Medium‑term: A potential policy shift or an easing of inflation could reinvigorate demand, especially if mortgage rates dip below 5 %.

An external link to the “Institute for Fiscal Studies” offers a more technical forecast, while a brief commentary from the “Financial Times” predicts that regional disparities (e.g., a stronger market in London vs. a weaker one in the North) will widen.

7. Bottom Line

While a 2 % drop may seem marginal, the article frames it as a signpost: the UK housing market, long driven by buoyant growth, is now grappling with the combined pressures of high rates, inflation, and supply bottlenecks. Buyers should stay alert to changing affordability dynamics, and sellers must consider recalibrating pricing and marketing strategies. For policymakers, the data underscores the delicate balance between tightening to curb inflation and maintaining a healthy property market.

8. Further Reading

The Irish News article links to a wealth of additional resources:

• HMRC Monthly Home‑Sales Data – official database
• Bank of England Monetary Policy Statements – recent rate decisions
• ONS Inflation and Wage Reports – latest economic indicators
• RICS Supply‑Demand Analysis – construction activity
• Mortgage Lenders Association Lending Criteria – current standards

By following these links, readers can gain a more granular view of the forces shaping the UK’s property market and how they may evolve in the coming months.